The Green Mouse says:
Three-time former mayor Doug England definitively is out of the 2015 mayoral race, purportedly as he is not interested in a 3-way (or more) primary and/or general election.
Some might ask whether England preparing to back a legitimate third-party candidate. It might be Irv Stumler, Doug’s unsuccessfully designated successor in 2011, but let’s be honest: Both England and Stumler are approaching the end of their political sell-by dates.
Meanwhile, the electoral math isn’t difficult. For anyone to defeat Jeff Gahan in 2015, the incumbent must shed a big chunk of his 64% general election landslide in 2011. 20% off the top places him in the low 40s, and vulnerable.
Who’s going to take this chunk away from him?
The GOP?
England still might, but Hizzoner is incorrect if he believes a three-way primary race diminishes his chances of winning a fourth time. Actually, it enhances his chances, and it may be the only way he can win, because he cannot risk waiting until the fall election to mount an insurgency.
England or no England, Gahan becomes beatable if the mock-monolithic Democratic Party’s bloc is carved into smaller pieces and ruthlessly exploited. I’ve already made the case that there likely are significant numbers of reluctant Democratic voters willing to support a more progressive candidate. England is by no means progressive, but he retains a core of allegiance even after his shambolic climb-down in 2011.
Consequently, a three-way primary bloodbath is the single best way for England to leverage what he has left in the tank, if anything. Because David White would appear more progressive in the primary by comparison, he’d siphon a percentage of those disgruntled with Gahan’s first term, even if he cannot win.
England and Gahan then would be competing for perhaps 80% of the remaining vote, and again, the more ways the pie is divided, and the lower an overall vote total in the primary, the better chance of any challenger scoring a squeaker.
In a two-way primary between Gahan and White, the incumbent wins easily, and the Democratic Party retains its aura of invincibility. In this case, unless the GOP emerges with a strong candidate, a two-way fall finale is all but a done deal … although a well-placed progressive independent still has an opening according to the same three-way rationale of the spring.
This independent candidate could not possibly be England. He’s neither progressive, nor strong enough numerically to mount an independent autumn challenge. He must play his cards in the primary and willfully instigate a bloodbath. Of course, this would not be conducive to the Democratic Party, but we know Doug’s primary allegiance is to himself, and not the party, so conscience wouldn’t be a deterrent.
The only question is whether he still wants it bad enough to do what he must do. If I were him, with the clock ticking, it’s something I’d re-examine.
As for the Green Mouse, here are a few other status reports for the 2015 mayoral election.
John Gonder remains out.
Diane Benedetti almost certainly is not interested
Matt Denison never considered running in the primary, but did contemplate a third-party run. Now, he's out.
And what are our chances for a November Eastridge Kingpin Smackdown between Gahan and his detested neighbor, Ned Flanders … wait, make that Mark Seabrook?
Wouldn’t THAT be oh-so entertaining?
No comments:
Post a Comment