Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts

Sunday, November 17, 2019

"Casting ash on society: Tambora - the volcano that changed the world."



The Smithsonian answers my first question.

The eruption of Tambora was ten times more powerful than that of Krakatau, which is 900 miles away. But Krakatau is more widely known, partly because it erupted in 1883, after the invention of the telegraph, which spread the news quickly. Word of Tambora traveled no faster than a sailing ship, limiting its notoriety.

The unexpected item of interest for me in this Deutsche Welle documentary is learning about the Museum of Bread and Art in Ulm, Germany.

When the Tambora volcano erupted in Indonesia some 200 years ago, around 100,000 people perished. But the disaster was not over. The eruption’s ash cloud would cause crop failures, epidemics and civil disturbances across the northern hemisphere.

Around 100,000 people died on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa when the Tambora volcano erupted at the beginning of April 1815. But their deaths were just the first chapter in this catastrophe. The eruption column rose to an altitude of more than 40 kilometers, spreading a shroud of smoke and ash throughout the stratosphere. The year 1816 has gone down in history as the "year without a summer." That year, the volcanic fallout blocked the sun’s rays, and rain and cold caused dramatic crop failures across the northern hemisphere. Famine stalked large parts of Europe and hundreds of thousands starved to death or were struck down by fatal diseases. Many set sail for the USA in the hope of finding a better life - the first major wave of emigration of the 19th Century - and many who could not afford to emigrate rebelled against the system. In England, the Corn Laws, which placed heavy taxes on grain, sparked massive riots in London and other major cities. The effects of the eruption endured for decades as climatic turbulence in India paved the way for the first global cholera pandemic, which led to the deaths of millions of people. The documentary examines the global consequences of this devastating natural disaster and talks to scientists who explain how this eruption changed the course of world history.

Sunday, July 01, 2018

Variable weather: "When can we expect 100% accurate forecasts?"


Just in case you were wondering. I've returned to looking out the window -- and there's probably an app for that.

Why are all my weather apps different? by Nic Fleming (The Guardian)

It was a tale of two storms. The first consisted of the rain and thunder forecast for Bournemouth by the BBC weather app on the Saturday spring bank holiday. The second came when the first failed to materialise and a tourism manager in the town complained that visitors who stayed away could have come after all and enjoyed sunshine and blue skies.

This opportunity to rage at inaccurate forecasting, bash the BBC and highlight the grievances of small businesses did not go to waste. For the Sun, it was a “blunderstorm”. The Mail gave voice to furious social media users whose weekend had been ruined by “crap forecasting” and “total incompetence”. The Spectator even managed to use the row to take pot shots at climate-change predictions.

So, just another non-storm in a media teacup? Perhaps, yet the story highlights important questions about how technology is transforming both weather forecasting and our relationship with it. Is our ability to predict temperature, precipitation and wind speed improving? If so, how come forecasts can vary so widely depending on which smartphone apps we use? How long have human meteorologists got before supercomputers and artificial intelligence make them redundant? And when can we expect 100% accurate forecasts?

Friday, January 22, 2016

WITHIN CITY LIMITS: Episode III, “We Choose to Control the Weather.”

WITHIN CITY LIMITS: Episode III, “We Choose to Control the Weather.”

By Nick Vaughn, Guest Columnist

My past articles have been pretty serious, more or less, so I thought I’d take a turn to the satirical. I hope you get a laugh out of this and find it as funny as I do.

Yesterday in New Albany it snowed around four to six inches, give or take. But the real silver lining in this is the fact that Jeff Gahan has been Mayor for over four years now and he still has not shown the leadership, the guts, or the initiative to control the weather.

I alluded to this a bit when I aired my grievances with the city this past Festivus, but seeing as the snow prevented me from going to school, from going to various political events -- from even going to the store -- I figured I should further express my concern and disdain in the most public manner I can.

After everything our Mayor has accomplished the past four years (the expansion of debt, degradation of credit ratings, and ignorance of poverty), I would have thought he would be making more of a push on this issue. Controlling the weather would pair very nicely with one of his golden projects he likes to brag about, the Aquatic Center. If he could merely control the weather in New Albany to a nice 78 or so degrees daily, then people would magically float to the Aquatic Center to ride down one of the underwhelming water slides or maybe swim a couple laps ... err, never mind.

In fact, I think attendance would increase through the roof. You know how building a park in a depraved area deep in poverty magically increases people’s wages and livelihood? Yeah, same principle here. A temperature increase would definitely increase attendance. Also, if we had Florida­esque temperatures year round, I’d bet people would just abandon their Disney World vacation and come visit New Albany! At that point it would basically be the same thing, right?

If Mayor Gahan wasn’t such an inept leader, he would walk straight into the City Council chambers and communicate his intentions to begin research, using a combination of TIF and EDIT funds to pay for (of course), the ability to control the weather. After all, maybe after 50 years or so we might see the budget become revenue neutral, maybe!

Of course, no one will be in the Council chambers during the Mayor’s fiery address, where he hopefully says something along the lines of: “We choose to control the weather, not because it is easy, but because this is New Albany!” How very Kennedy of you, Mr. Mayor.

I guess the real question is, is the technology there to be able to control the weather? Well, that depends on who you ask. Ask your local UFO aficionado and he/she will tell you the government has been controlling the weather since the Cold War. Ask your local scientist and he/she will tell you the technology, unfortunately is not quite there yet. Ask your local UN official and they will tell you it’s a war crime.

Sorry.

Nonetheless, I took to the streets to survey regular New Albanians like me and you to see if they would be in favor of Mayor Gahan controlling the weather. I walked around Market, Main, Pearl, and Bank streets to look for locals shopping around the area. Unfortunately, no one was there. I did, however, find a couple from Louisville who said they would be in favor of the Mayor controlling the weather.

“Yes, I think we would be in favor of that. We could bring our kids to the Aquatic Center more often,” said the clearly excited woman.

“Yeah, we’ve been to the Aquatic Center several times and brought quite a bit of our friends and family. We even ran into a ton of friends from Louisville while we were there over the summer,” explained the clearly freezing man.

I didn’t catch their names, but as they were walking away they let me know they were related to the Mayor and voted for him in the general election.

I hope they meant Greg Fischer.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

All Jingle Walk/Holiday Fest events are "on" today, except the tree lighting and ...


 ... the politicized street sweeper parade review and Oaf Oath of Office. These presumably will be conducted next Saturday.

Today's Jingle Walk (wine sampling) apparently is a go. Holiday Fest? It isn't yet clear.

It's 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, and I believe today's Jingle Walk is proceeding as scheduled at 1:00 p.m. However, signals remain somewhat mixed for today's Holiday Fest, which I'm taking to mean all events not pertaining to the wine sampling "jingle" walk.

As for this year's new twist of politicizing a Christmas festival with an "oath of office" ceremony, would you expect any different from the Genius of the Flood Plain?

Develop New Albany has done a good job with this day in recent years, and there always would have been a plan for rain or inclement weather, so it's hard to determine why this year's signals are so mixed.

A place to start is Facebook. If one were to search for "Jingle Walk," this is what comes up first: New Albany Jingle Walk EVENT page. I glanced at it on Thursday, and noticed a fair number of unanswered questions and some disgruntlement at the absence of stewardship.


But the city's Fb page consistently pointed the way to this COMMUNITY page, which actually has been regularly tended, and seems to be the "official" portal: New Albany's Annual Holiday Fest/Jingle Walk.


Note the difference: It's Holiday Fest first and Jingle Walk second. For the casual observer, the question is obvious: Which is which?

At around 7:00 p.m. on Friday, the city's Fb page further muddied this absence of clarity.


The city tries to delineate Jingle Walk and Holiday Fest by saying the former will proceed"rain or shine," but with the day's various branded components already confusing, the post's ambiguity is sending a message of uncertainty -- in short, sure death for the wine walk.

By 11:00 p.m. on Friday, DNA's president was on the event page belatedly answering unanswered questions (she may not have known it was there), and also sending this e-mail:


I feel badly for DNA. Uncertainty is the great killer of events, and the city hasn't helped their cause today by sending mixed social media signals.

Finally, in response to the questions I received: I know nothing about a beer component of the wine walk, so it's my ongoing assumption that sampling is confined to wine, only.

Monday, February 23, 2015

Just remember, "Weather is not climate."

It'll be very again today, so here's a slice of hot and timely science from Mother Jones.


Attention GOP Presidential Candidates: Winter Does Not Disprove Global Warming

Weather is not climate.
It may seem obvious to you that the existence of extreme winter weather doesn't negate the scientific fact that humans are warming the planet. But that's probably because you aren't a climate change denier who's contemplating a run for the GOP presidential nomination ...

 ... If you're a regular Climate Desk reader, you already know why all this is wrong. You understand the difference between individual weather events and long-term climate trends. You probably even know that according to the National Climate Assessment, winter precipitation is expected to increase in the northeastern United States as a result of climate change. But if you're a Republican who wants to be president, please pay close attention to the following video:


Thursday, July 18, 2013

ON THE AVENUES: Sunscreen, lube, and Dr. Tom's cabin.

ON THE AVENUES: Sunscreen, lube, and Dr. Tom's cabin.

A weekly web column by Roger A. Baylor. 

While shopping last Sunday afternoon in Plymouth, England, it occurred to me that never in my life had I seen as many people suffering from explosive, crimson sunburn.

This was not the way it was supposed to be. Apparently the Plymouth spring was cool and rainy, and the gloom extended all the way into summer -- until the precise moment we stepped off the plane at Heathrow.

It’s a three and a half hour train trip from London’s Paddington rail station to Plymouth, and by the time we arrived on the afternoon of July 4, it was 80 degrees and sunny, with a cloudless blue sky. This is the way it stayed the entire time we were there, eleven days in all, before returning for a final night in London, where at least an occasional thin cloud could be seen, albeit without shade.

We should have invoiced them, such was their delight at having brought such lovely weather.

Daytime temperatures then rose to the mid-eighties, which doesn’t sound like much for the Ohio Valley, but can be brutal in a place like England, which largely is without air conditioning. Usually there’s no need. The historic absence of hot summer sunshine might explain the prices for sunscreen, nudging toward $15 at a drugstore in the Cornish coastal town of Looe.

We bought it anyway. Beets are meant to be eaten, not worn, and I feared that Dr. Tom Harris might be watching, ready to parachute down and levy a sunburn tax.

---

Just before shipping out of town for our excursion to merry old England, I learned that the Floyd County Health Department had finally, presumably grudgingly, deigned to schedule a board hearing for NABC’s contention that it possesses absolutely no statutory precedent for its recent awakened control fetish, whereby temporary beer vendors are expected to purchase temporary food permits each time plastic cups are filled.

Of course Harris, the agency’s chieftain already has gone on record in the newspaper to dismiss NABC’s case before it has been scheduled, much less heard, which naturally makes a mockery of due process, and not coincidentally belies an institutional arrogance with which local food service purveyors have long been intimately, and painfully, familiar.

It is significant, but entirely unsurprising, that I’ve yet to be personally informed by the FCHD of this July 25 hearing date before the board. Transparency and humor aren’t the only qualities eluding the agency’s mandate, communications from whom unfailingly conjure an image of kidney stones passing or Liteweights failing to fathom real beer flavor. I know the date only because my legal advisor, Laszlo, was dispatched to confer with the department’s lawyer, proving yet again that common sense invariably is not.

---

Kindly know that it is my longtime habit to allow sleeping dogs and regulators their detached snoozing, while their snores are sufferable, but when the fangs are bared and a bureaucrat’s eyes begin to lie, I can’t hide my desire to fight back with as much rhetorical firepower as can be mustered.

However, this scrap isn't something to be concluded without measured deliberation, and accordingly, having decided there are important principles of jurisdiction involved, I’m in this game to win even as it annoys me to no end that I must be playing charades like these against my will.

Except that time-wasting charades probably are the department's point.

To me, perhaps the single most important aspect of this foolishness is arriving at a determination of its exact instigator. Neither a computer nor Fortuna’s wheel can be blamed; this is a human’s gambit. Someone in the FCHD decided to push this particular newfangled envelope, perhaps at his or her own behest, or maybe because outside interests decided that a campaign of petty harassment would be amusing.

It is impossible to preclude culpability on the part of elected officials, particularly those in the county, whose cowardice toward funding their own agencies constantly promotes a “hold your own bake sale if you want money” mentality. Hypothetically, it’s a short step from prevailing county governmental dysfunction to someone in the health department concluding that there is a way to raise a few extra dollars, and if no one protests, a potential turf precedent useful for tightening future vises, both here and elsewhere in the state.

They’ll not land such a precedent without a struggle, because the fact remains that beer and brewing are the domains of the federal government in the brewhouse, and the state of Indiana at the point of dispense. NABC is amply regulated by those entities entitled to do so. There’s a reason why it’s always worked this way, and there needs to be proof why this way has suddenly changed. Pretending "it's always been" is purely Orwellian, and needs to be exposed for the fraudulence such attitudes foist.

It is my belief that the Floyd County Health Department is holding a pair of threes and bluffing. I could be wrong, and we’ll know soon enough. Irrespective of the outcome next week, rest assured that matters will not stop here. As a director on the board of the Brewers of Indiana Guild, I’ll be pushing for legislative clarifications at the state level. Meanwhile, I’d love to explain all of my impending game strategies, but cannot do so until showtime at last arrives.

Suffice to say that if what I’ve heard to date about the FCHD’s chosen justification is true, there’s no more principle involved on its end than the typical napping mutt's, who licks his nuts primarily because he can.

That’s fine for the canine, but shouldn’t we expect something a bit more elevated than semantics, coin flips and an exaggerated sense of self-importance from the Olympian guardians of public safety?

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Harvest Homecoming ends with a careful whisper.

By 3:30 p.m. today, it hadn't yet rained, and the sun was shining brightly on what trash remained in downtown New Albany that had not been borne by a gentle afternoon breeze eastward, to the banks of Silver Creek.

Not to mention the garbage.

But the Harvest Homecoming committee already had cancelled the game, presumably aware that since the Indiana State Fair stage collapse two years ago, every organization in America is a fluke occurrence away from learning that its insurance isn't adequate.

As in the comically frequent case of school closings when snow doesn't fall, we now routinely cancel anything and everything because weather conditions MIGHT get bad. Our forbearers who conquered the wilderness should be cringing in their graves.

Then again, there were very few lawsuits on the High Plains back then. I'm disgusted at the overall trend of timidity, but I cannot fault the festival for fearing the worst.

We shouldn't let today's cancellation detract from the numerous issues that the various Harvest Homecoming governing boards must begin discussing far more honestly and openly than they ever have been willing to do in the past. New Albany has a functioning downtown business district again, one with its own business model. Many more voices need to be heard.

Is Harvest Homecoming prepared to listen?

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Rain, clouds, Batman and Naughty Girl(s).


We went to the Georgetown Drive-In on Friday night. It was rather wet, at least in the beginning, which confounded our neighbors in the pick-up truck to the left of us. They got very damp trying to configure a makeshift tarp, and then left a huge pile of garbage on the ground when departing. All of this provided me with pleasing memories of growing up among the rednecks, from whom I learned the simple lesson of ignoring the state prohibition of alcohol from the grounds.


Having brought growlers of, er, um, homemade cream soda, I quickly popped outside during a brief lull in the downpour to procure a refill from the handy trunk cooler -- and whoa! There was the cloud depicted above. It made me wish I'd brought an even stronger variety of cream soda.


Here's the same cloud, a moment later, looking south.


But in due time, the precipitation stopped, and for the first hour of the movie, a spectacular lightning show danced around the edges of the movie screen. The film itself? Entertaining, and a suitable ending to the trilogy. Most of the evening, I found myself dreaming about the prospects for a Craft Beer Drive-In. If you have money to invest ...

Since 1951 and now on Facebook: Georgetown Drive-In

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

On engineering and the devaluation of 1,000-year weather events.


At Monday's city council meeting, as the discussion turned to how many dollars per inch it will require to restore Spring Street Hill to viability as Councilman Bob Caesar's fastest route home, engineers became weathermen.

New Albany council wants review of Spring Street Hill work; $540,000 project receives initial approval, but second opinion requested, by Daniel Suddeath (News, Tribune and Pop Up Generator)

The city hoped to receive aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, as Jacobi, Toombs and Lanz President Jorge Lanz said almost 9 inches of rain fell on Silver Hills between April 19 and May 2 of 2011.

But FEMA denied the city’s request earlier this month, though administration officials declared Monday they will appeal the decision within 60 days. Lanz said the “historic” problems associated with the road were part of FEMA’s decision to deny the request, though he said much their reasoning for the ruling was still “cloudy” ...

... Lanz said crews had to dig about 30 feet into the ground before the ravine was discovered, and he added that kind of testing is unusual for such a project.

The drainage installed met city standards, but it’s not feasible to design a system capable of dealing with a 1,000 year storm like April’s rain event was, he continued.

“For this kind of structure, I don’t know what else we could have done,” Lanz said.

If umbrellas were necessary, were they to protect us from rain, or exaggerations? A blog reader delved into the archives:

Indiana Precipitation Records

Driest location ranked by lowest annual average precipitation: English, southern Indiana, 49.72"

Wettest location ranked by highest annual average precipitation: Monroeville, northeast Indiana, 33.74"

Snowiest location ranked by highest annual average snowfall: South Bend, northern Indiana, 76.6"

State precipitation maximum for 24 hours - Princeton, southwest Indiana, 8/6/1905, 10.50"

State precipitation maximum for 1 year - Marengo, southern Indiana, 1890, 97.38"

State snow maximum for 24 hours - Seymour, south-central Indiana, 12/22-23/2004, 29.0"

State snow maximum for 1 season - South Bend, northern Indiana, 1977-1978, 172.0"

It's hard to believe that nine inches of rain falling in a 13 day period qualifies as a "1,000 year storm" - especially when you consider 10.5 inches fell in 24 hours in 1905 in Princeton, Indiana.

Indeed, and another friend asks: "Didn't this much rain fall in two days back in 1997?" In the end, it probably doesn't matter. Caesar wants his handy commute fixed -- and that's not a request.

... Caesar, who is sponsoring the measure, agreed that a second opinion is “imperative” but doesn’t believe it will greatly delay the project to obtain a review.

“I think this could happen in a very short amount of time,” he said.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Thank you sir ... may we have another?

Life in New Albany typically has the aura of being trapped in an Ayn Rand novel, as during any public pronouncement by the 3rd district uncouncilman, when you can imagine Dagny Taggart rolling here eyes and urging John Galt to move faster, please.

To make it even worse, today has the feeling of everyone hunkered down, waiting for the beatings to resume, and I guess that's understandable. After uncounted years of being terrified at the first snowflake's fall, now the Louisville area can fear wind just as much as wintry mixes.

The area didn't receive much in the way of coherent warnings about last September's hurricane lashings, and we were slammed. The weather fraternity actually called the January ice storm well enough, and we were slammed again.

Me? While not a gambler by habit, I'm going for the law (the maw?) of averages this time. Dire conditions are predicted, and I say we'll dodge the worst of it.

But if the wind gets really bad today, don't hold me to a higher standard than the forecasters. All I know for sure is that during a dastardly economic downturn, it's be good to hold stock in one of those generator companies .. and I'm keeping phone and computer charged just in case.