Showing posts with label independent candidates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label independent candidates. Show all posts

Saturday, May 18, 2019

"Bernie Sanders has spent his life working to find a party to advance his cause, rather than finding a cause that can advance his party."


I support Bernie Sanders as a presidential candidate because his positions jibe with my own. There are other Democratic presidential candidates who have positions similar to the ones Sanders professes; for my money, he was there first, but if one of them becomes the nominee and not Sanders, there's a fairly good chance I'll be supportive. Until then, I stick with the purest expression of my own set of values. I can't see this having much of anything to do with a candidate's gender, race, orientation. It's about platform, policies and core values.

The Long Shot, by Matthew Karp (The Nation)

How Bernie became Bernie

If you want to appreciate the return of the left as a significant force in American politics, treat yourself to a quiet evening with the 2012 Democratic Party platform. This vast accumulation of words, over 26,000 in all, contains no fewer than 42 invocations of “the middle class,” 28 calls for “innovation,” and 18 promises of “tax credits.” Its first policy section places “Middle Class Tax Cuts” atop the list of Barack Obama’s achievements as president. And amid this great desert of focus-grouped language, boundless and bare, there rises not a single demand for a major universal public program.

How much has changed in the last few years. At the grass roots, the evidence for some kind of left-wing resurgence is too overwhelming for all but the most jaundiced or mechanical skeptic to deny: the wave of victorious labor strikes from West Virginia to Los Angeles, the advent of new activist movements like Black Lives Matter and the Women’s March, the rise of left political organizations (the Democratic Socialists of America grew from 6,500 members in 2014 to about 60,000 today), and the election of avowedly radical candidates to city governments, state legislatures, and Congress itself. Amid this hive of activity, national opinion has pitched sharply to the left ...

Leftward trends.

... What explains this swift ideological transformation? Over the longer term, no doubt, it owes its origins to the political and economic upheaval that has gripped much of the industrialized world in the last decade. Forty years of globalizing markets, deregulating states, declining unions, flattening wages, expanding debt, and skyrocketing inequality—administered by governments of the right and center-left alike—established the conditions for general political revolt, the reverberations of which could be seen from Wisconsin to Greece. Yet this broader crisis, by itself, hardly ensured a renaissance of social democracy in the United States. Across the Atlantic, the anti-establishment upheaval has boosted right-wing nationalists more often than movements of the left; its most immediate impact on American politics, after all, was the election of Donald Trump. And so one must look for more acute reasons for social democracy’s revival, and no better one can be found than Sanders’s 2016 campaign for president. So many of the ideas, tactics, and even key players of the current moment—including Ocasio-Cortez, a former Sanders-campaign volunteer—emerged in the context of that remarkable primary run. As new books by Sanders and his 2016 campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, help demonstrate, the Vermont socialist’s long-shot bid for the Democratic nomination did not just succeed in “pushing Clinton to the left”; it helped transform the shape and content of progressive politics in the United States.

Outside the duopoly.

Such deep roots in third-party struggle make Sanders a black swan not only among today’s Democratic elite but across American political history. To find an influential national figure with such an extensive background outside the two-party system, you have to return to Debs and the Socialists in the early 20th century or, perhaps, Salmon Chase and the antislavery radicals who helped found the Republican Party before the Civil War. Like the political abolitionists of that era, Sanders has spent his life working to find a party to advance his cause, rather than finding a cause that can advance his party. Nor has that cause wavered very much in half a century. Interviewed by United Press International at the start of his first Liberty Union Party campaign in 1972, he produced a paragraph that could be pasted into a tweet today: “If we wanted to, we could have decent housing and free medical care and jobs for everyone…. It won’t happen because the wealth and money lies in the hands of a few people who are not concerned with the welfare of others.”

BIG SNIP

It would be wrong to say that the Democratic Party, in its current institutional form, is anything like the party of Bernie Sanders. Business-friendly moderates still make up its largest congressional caucus, billionaire donors (and billionaire politicians) remain close to its leadership, and even many Washington progressives appear willing to dump Medicare for All for some plausible-sounding substitute. Nevertheless, the larger pattern is clear. On issue after issue, from wealth taxes to climate change to corporate PAC money, the national debate has moved away from the cautious incrementalism of the Clinton campaign and toward the bold social-democratic agenda laid out by Sanders in 2016.

Foreign policy.

Much about a possible Sanders foreign policy remains uncertain, including its approach to trade relations with China, its attitude toward Israel and Palestine, and its outlook on the 800-some military bases that the United States maintains around the world. Denouncing the “military-industrial complex” is one thing; dismantling it, quite another. Nevertheless, a view of international politics that rejects the premise of US global hegemony, as Sanders does, is already worlds apart from anything dreamed up within official Democratic circles, where enthusiasm for a new Cold War against Russian and Chinese “neo-authoritarianism” is brewing.

Big money.

Sanders, by contrast, understands that the rise of the 1 percent is a bipartisan phenomenon. “Our economy, our political life, and the media,” he writes, “are largely controlled by a handful of billionaires and large corporations…. I believe that the Democratic Party bears an enormous amount of responsibility for this sad state of affairs.” And unlike the party’s leadership, he recognizes that the power of the ownership class extends far beyond the nebulous special interests that every politician denounces. While no other national Democrat, Warren included, even uses the phrase “corporate media,” Sanders rightly makes it a recurring theme in his critique of billionaire rule.

Civil rights.

Contrary to much disingenuous criticism, this does not mean that Sanders refuses to recognize historically specific inequalities of gender and race. On questions of discrimination, pay equity, mass incarceration, and civil rights, his rhetoric and record have been far in advance of the Democratic Party’s mainstream for quite some time. (Many surveys have shown that Sanders’s strongest national support comes from women and people of color; the vast majority of black voters, regardless of their 2016 primary choice, continue to view him favorably.) The difference is not what Sanders does not say but what he does say: that every American, including those who voted for Trump, is entitled to the universal protections of social democracy.

FDR ... and Lincoln.

From Weaver to Ocasio-Cortez, nearly every progressive figure today is urging the Democrats to reclaim the bold mantle of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Yet Sanders rounds out the introduction to Where We Go From Here with a quotation from another president who led an even bolder movement and whose election spurred an even greater transformation. The hoariest words in American history—Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg vow to defend “government of the people, by the people, and for the people”—are also, Sanders reminds us, some of the most radical. To overthrow an entrenched oligarchy and claim a “new birth of freedom” based on democratic equality for all: That would be a political revolution worth fighting for.

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

2019 Mayoral Race Part 2: Thinking about Dan Coffey's independent bid for mayor.


In the first part of today's digression, mayoral election voting totals and trends since 1971 are examined, with eye toward the potential impact of independent candidates.

2019 Mayoral Race Part 1: Numbers, because "three’s company, two. Or four? Maybe more."

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Yesterday's column dealt with post-primary middle fingers, black dogs and redemptive day drinking: ON THE AVENUES: Where do we go from here?

In it, I made this observation.

Precipice, meet Wile E. Gahan. Few of David White's supporters will vote for Hizzoner. Some of them may sit out the general election, but most will opt for Mark Seabrook. Combine the corrosive trends of two-term attrition with those 300 votes Gahan lost Tuesday, and Dear Leader’s autumn ceiling is looking like 3,000 votes at most -- and this doesn’t factor the chunk subtracted from the Democrats by Dan Coffey's probable independent candidacy.

Indeed, current 1st district council representative Dan Coffey, for many years a Democrat but more recently unattached politically, is preparing his petition to run for mayor as an upper-case Independent. He finds fault with my analysis.

Roger.

Your math may be off. There are as many disenfranchised Republicans as there are Democrats. I'm not running to fulfill one person's wishes. I'm running to take the politics out of government and giving the government back to the people. If you're looking for a spoiler, look at one of the party candidates.

Dan Coffey

As a onetime independent candidate myself, I take Dan's comment to heart. In looking back at election results since World War II, there were no independent candidates until 1991.

1991: Democrat Doug England (4,785) defeats Independent Phyllis Garmon (4,154) and Republican Kenny Keilman (2,344).
Total votes: 11,283
Percentage: 42 – 37 - 21

If I recall correctly, Garmon identified as a Republican and ran independently owing to some manner of a GOP internecine spat. Perhaps a reader can provide wider background.

Understanding that England, while mildly left-leaning, could hardly be characterized as "progressive" or "liberal" in any contemporary sense, it must have been a very conservative campaign, with the ultimate point being that no independent mayoral candidate in New Albany has ever performed better than Garmon did in 1991.

Garmon's 4,154 votes and 37% are huge, and England took office in 1992 with 58% of the voters having displayed a preference for someone else.

However England (D) rallied for a convincing win in 1995, only to be crushed by Regina Overton (R) in 1999. Overton in turn was swamped by James Garner (D) in 2003, when a Libertarian candidate first appeared on the ballot.

2003: Democratic challenger James Garner defeats Overton, 5,971 to 3,893; 196 votes cast for Melanie Hughes (Libertarian).
Total votes: 10,600
Percentage: 59 – 39 – 2

Garner was toppled from within by a Democratic Party coup during the 2007 primary, from which England emerged to barely beat Randy Hubbard (R) in the fall. This beings us to 2011, and the current mayor's easy win against a divided field, which included an independent candidate as well as a Libertarian.

2011: Democrat Jeff Gahan (4,506) defeats Republican Dale “DM” Bagshaw (1,389), Independent Jack Messer (1,024) and Libertarian Thomas Keister (88).
Total votes: 7,007
Percentage: 64 – 20 – 15 – 1

2015: Democrat Jeff Gahan (3,527) defeats Republican Kevin Zurschmiede (2,695) and Independent Roger A. Baylor (462).
Total votes: 6,684
Percentage: 53 - 40 - 7

In three of the past four mayoral contests, there have been candidates other than Democrats and Republicans. Erstwhile councilman and police officer Jack Messer achieved the highest tally for an independent since Garmon, with 1,024 votes (15%) in 2011. I achieved slightly less than half of Jack's total in 2015, with 462.

This brings us full circle to Dan's thought: "There are as many disenfranchised Republicans as there are Democrats."

Yesterday I gave in to the temptation of looking at the forthcoming mayoral election as an expression of the traditional duopoly, a simple "D" versus "R" equation. However, I contradicted myself to an extent by imagining that most of White's voters in the Democratic primary will identify with the GOP's Seabrook as an expression of anti-Gahan sentiment.

We know the Republican Party is numerically inferior inside city limits, although there's no real way of determining how many of New Albany's voters are "hard" and "soft" when it comes to party affiliation.

What we don't know at present is the level of disaffection within Republican party ranks. The Democrats certainly have left and right wings internally, and I hear rumors to the same effect about the GOP. Recently an insider told me that having a "big tent" is a fine idea until you start inviting people into it.

My guess is that Dan feels he'll draw equally from Democrats, Republicans and whatever remains of the pool of voters who treat municipal elections as a time to vote for the person, not the party.

As I can attest, the biggest problem for an independent candidate is reaching voters. I foresee Dan knocking on quite a few doors in the coming months. Lately he's more visible on social media. When New Albany had a newspaper of its own, there was more coverage of local elections than there is now, which is to say that nowadays he won't get much in the way of media attention without purchasing it.

There's not enough information to judge, at least yet, although as Garmon proved way back in 1991 it's possible for an independent to smash the 30-percentile barrier, potentially reducing any three-way race to the theoretical status of toss-up.

This is Coffey's challenge: get 2,000 votes and a 30-odd percentage share and go into the late innings with a chance of pulling off the indie upset -- and make no mistake; for any independent to win over the power-sharing arrangement perpetuated by both major parties must be considered an upset. The deck's stacked against independent candidates, and the parties act in concert to keep it this way.

Following is a complete essay by Drew Curtis in which he clearly outlines the problems and possibilities for an independent candidate in a nation that has long since surrendered to the two-party duopoly. Much of this applies to Dan or any other local independent candidate. Later this summer I hope to interview Dan about his platform, so please stay tuned.

Op-Ed: Taking Parties Out of Politics

In the 1800s, political parties were candidates' social networks. Drew Curtis, founder of social networking news site Fark.com and Kentucky gubernatorial candidate, now asks if we still need parties in 2015.

Upvoted.com ... Drew Curtis • October 3, 2015

Tonight at 6:45 PM, two candidates will take the stage of Newlin Hall in Danville, Ky., to debate why a Republican or a Democrat should be the next governor of our state. I’m the third guy, running as an Independent, who was not permitted to join them onstage, and I’m here to tell you why our two-party system is outdated.

When George Washington gave his 1796 Farewell Address, he devoted two paragraphs to these new things called “political parties” and the dangers they represented to democracy. He warned that if they were allowed to continue to exist, they’d subvert government to their own ends, make themselves rich, start wars to retain power, and a whole host of other things—all of which actually happened exactly as predicted.

When the Framers wrote the Constitution, America had no political parties. They’re not mentioned anywhere in the entire document.

The Founding Fathers believed in a different style of politician: citizen candidates. They wanted political office to function similar to jury duty. Citizens would serve in government positions for a limited term, transfer the office peacefully to new citizens, and return to private life.

Yet when we register to vote we are required to choose a party. And as I’ve discovered running as an Independent, the parties have made it nearly impossible to attain office without their support.

Note that I said near-impossible. Here’s why it’s possible now:

Political parties exist because they had to—in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries, there was no other possible way to get elected. There was no alternative method any normal person could gain enough notoriety and voter support to win an election in the pre-digital age.

In the mid-19th and early 20th centuries, parties built huge power bases run by regional bosses that retained control of votes by providing welfare-like services to individuals that weren’t technically bribes (but actually were). If you were poor and needed blankets for your children, you could go to the local Democrat or Republican office and get them—with the implicit expectation that you would vote for the party in the next election.

Political parties founded nearly all newspapers. Incidentally, this is why many towns had two newspapers—one for each party. They controlled the votes, they controlled the media, and they controlled access to the ballot.

In Kentucky, for example, if you simply run as a Democrat or Republican, you only need two signatures to get listed on the ballot. If you don’t, you need 5,000 valid signatures of registered Kentucky voters. And they check all of them by hand. And if you somehow miss the 5,000 mark, you don’t receive the opportunity to make up the difference, you start completely over at zero. I gathered 10,000 signatures just to be sure. It took months to do this and all our early resources.

So what’s changed that makes Independent runs possible?

Political parties are 19th century social networks. Now we have new social networks, and 21st century social networks transcend the limits of a two-party system.

Social networks are communities built around an atomic raison d’etre at their core. For example, Fark is built around news with a humorous context. Reddit is built around the proliferation of all ideas, news or otherwise. And political parties are built around the goal of getting individuals elected so that parties can retain power, enrich their friends, and maybe—if they get around to it—actually fixing social ills.

Kentucky actually has a surprisingly strong recent history of Independent candidates running for Governor. For the past three decades, Gatewood Galbraith ran for Governor, first as a Democrat, and later as an Independent. Sadly, he passed away in 2012.

In 2011, Galbraith received nine percent of the vote—which is interesting because most of the televised debate criteria for the 2015 election requires 10 percent in a poll. I refer to this as the Gatewood Exclusion Criteria because I don’t think that number is an accident.

I’ve spoken with people who were involved in Galbraith’s previous campaigns before deciding to run for Governor because I wanted to be sure that the problems he encountered were ones that were either out-of-play or problems that I could overcome somehow.

My conclusion was that Galbraith had three main issues that held him back from success at the polls—all of which can now be solved through effective use of social media:

Time Management
This isn’t actually a party-related issue—it’s a logistics issue. I’m fortunate that as an entrepreneur, I am well aware that there is an infinite amount of work to do at my job. It doesn’t matter how much I accomplish in any given day: Work is never finished. The same goes for running for office, but it’s even worse because ideally, if you had the time, you’d personally sit down with each and every voter and talk to them. There’s no way to do this. I have been executing some interesting strategies via social media that go a long way toward solving this. However, that’s a write-up for a different day, post-election. In a nutshell: Simply being busy doesn’t correlate to actual progress. Effective use of time is paramount, and social media can magnify your impact.

Media Coverage and Signal Strength
Galbraith ran for office during a time where newspapers, radio, and television could (and did) function as information-gatekeepers. People involved with his prior campaigns said that local media refused to give him coverage because he didn’t place ad buys with them (incidentally, I’m not having that problem in 2015. Although there is still reluctance for media to acknowledge a third candidate in the race, I think this is due to habit more than anything else).

Galbraith couldn’t afford to advertise—he wasn’t able to raise enough money to buy ads because he didn’t have the media signal strength to reach donors. While there were probably other non-merit-related reasons why media chose to not give him coverage, the main point here is that media-gatekeeping mattered because he had no other available option. There was just no other effective way to get his message to the public.

Today, however, we have social networks. From the beginning, my strategy has been to encourage everyone to boost my signal. If you like what you hear, tell 10 people. Then tell them to do the same. Like Galbraith, I’d absolutely make advertising buys, but it turns out that most political donors give to campaigns to buy influence—and I’m not selling it. Oh, and, by the way: Any US citizen can donate to the campaign at drewcurtis.com/donate (hint, hint).

Framing Damage
As for Galbraith’s third problem, he had no way to counter framing attacks. If you’ve ever noticed how political candidates dodge questions, fail to provide specifics, and spend all their time attacking their opponents, then you’re already wise to the actual point of debates—which is hitting your opponent with negative ways to frame them and their ideas with the hopes that something sticks that changes voters’ minds.

During his first campaign, now-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell won elected office by successfully framing his opponent as someone who never showed up to congressional votes—which was true, by the way. His opponent really did have a terrible congressional attendance record. Voters soon came to perceive the incumbent as a terrible elected official and switched their votes to McConnell instead.

But Galbraith’s most famous issue of choice was the legalization of pot. It’s almost a mainstream concept in politics today, but in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, it was seen as weird and wonky. This made it easy for opponents to brand him as the Crazy Pot Guy. And with no other way to counter the framing in mainstream media, it stuck.

All three of these barriers to success for Galbraith are now possible to overcome via social media. I’ll be writing a book on specific strategies post-election because we’ve still got a month to go in my race.

However, I believe a disruption is coming to electoral politics. If I don’t manage to pull off a disruption this November, it’s clear to me that someone else will manage it very soon. We’re seeing cracks appearing already within the parties themselves—nontraditional candidates are faring far better than traditional ones even within the parties on both sides of the aisle, with Donald Trump wreaking havoc among Republicans and Bernie Sanders steadily disrupting what seemed like a preordained win for Hillary.

I’ve been asked the question, “Do you think it will be possible for someone to get elected solely through social media?”

I would argue that social media has always been the only way to get elected, we just didn’t realize parties were 19th century social networks. What’s different now is we have more than two choices of social networking to use. By 2020 at the latest, I expect to begin witnessing Independent candidates making serious inroads as a result.

Some other useful numbers.

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1971: Democratic challenger Warren Nash defeats Republican incumbent Garnett Inman, 9,097 to 6,180.
Total votes: 15,277
Percentage: 60 - 40

1975: Republican challenger Robert Real defeats Nash, 9,264 to 4,763.
Total votes: 14,027
Percentage: 66 - 34

1979: Real defeats Democratic challenger John Stein, 6,637 to 3,801.
Total votes: 10,438
Percentage: 64 -36

1983: Democratic challenger Charles Hunter defeats Real, 6,148 to 5,888.
Total votes: 12,036
Percentage: 51 - 49

1987: Real defeats Hunter, 6,005 to 5,467.
Total votes: 11,472
Percentage: 52 - 48

1991: Democrat Doug England (4,785) defeats Independent Phyllis Garmon (4,154) and Republican Kenny Keilman (2,344).
Total votes: 11,283
Percentage: 42 – 37 - 21

1995: England defeats Real, 6,573 to 5,628.
Total votes: 12,201
Percentage: 54 - 46

1999: Republican challenger Regina Overton defeats England, 5,512 to 4,205.
Total votes: 9,717
Percentage: 57 - 43

2003: Democratic challenger James Garner defeats Overton, 5,971 to 3,893; 196 votes cast for Melanie Hughes (Libertarian).
Total votes: 10,600
Percentage: 59 – 39 – 2

2007: England defeats Randy Hubbard (Republican), 4,017 to 3,741.
Total votes: 7,758
Percentage: 52 - 48

2011: Democrat Jeff Gahan (4,506) defeats Republican Dale “DM” Bagshaw (1,389), Independent Jack Messer (1,024) and Libertarian Thomas Keister (88).
Total votes: 7,007
Percentage: 64 – 20 – 15 – 1

2015: Democrat Jeff Gahan (3,527) defeats Republican Kevin Zurschmiede (2,695) and Independent Roger A. Baylor (462).
Total votes: 6,684
Percentage: 53 - 40 - 7

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New Albany population:

(1970): 38,402
(2010): 36,372
(2017 est): 36,461

2019 Mayoral Race Part 1: Numbers, because "Three’s company, two. Or four? Maybe more."


This is the first part. The next part is here: 

2019 Mayoral Race Part 2: Thinking about Dan Coffey's independent bid for mayor.

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This ON THE AVENUES column originally was published on May 1, 2014. I'm repeating it today in order to amplify a comment made by independent mayoral candidate Dan Coffey.

There are as many disenfranchised Republicans as there are Democrats. I'm not running to fulfill one person's wishes. I'm running to take the politics out of government and giving the government back to the people. If you're looking for a spoiler, look at one of the party candidates.

ON THE AVENUES: Where do we go from here?


As an addendum to the 2014 column, here are the 2015 mayoral election results.

2015: Democrat Jeff Gahan (3,527) defeats Republican Kevin Zurschmiede (2,695) and Independent Roger A. Baylor (462).
Total votes: 6,684
Percentage: 53 - 40 - 7

Total votes cast for mayor in 2015 fell to 44% compared with the election in 1971. Note New Albany's population count during this 44-year period.

Population (1970): 38,402
Population (2010): 36,372
Population (2017 est): 36,461

All this having been said, let's revisit the 2014 column.

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ON THE AVENUES: Three’s company, two. Or four? Maybe more.

A weekly web column by Roger A. Baylor.

The 2014 primary election is next Tuesday. It features drab county races, but I’ve been thinking about the city’s mayoral election in 2015. It’s never too early to begin contemplating the many intriguing possibilities.

In 2011, Jeff Gahan plainly dominated the contest. Not since Bob Real’s second consecutive blowout win in 1975 has there been such a wicked beat-down. It looked like this:

Jeff Gahan (Democrat) … 4,506 votes
Dale “DM” Bagshaw (Republican) … 1,389
Jack Messer (Independent) … 1,024
Thomas Keister (Libertarian) ... 88
Total votes: 7,007
Percentages: 64 – 20 – 15 – 1

On the face of it, Gahan looks unbeatable in 2015 – assuming he chooses to run for a second term. But my guess is that Gahan’s 2011 numbers won’t be repeated, because recent voting history does not support the likelihood of a second consecutive landslide.

For one thing, in 11 mayoral elections held since 1971 (see below), it generally has been the case that the higher the percentage of the vote in one’s first winning campaign, the greater chance of a precipitous drop-off the second time around.

Warren Nash went from 60% in 1971 to 34% in 1975. Regina Overton plunged from 57% in 1999 to 39% four years later. James Garner vanquished Overton with just shy of 60%, only to be defeated in the Democratic primary by Doug England in 2007.

Bob Real is the exception. In both 1975 and 1979, Real topped 60%, but fell to 49% in his third race in 1983 against Chas Hunter. Simply stated, the odds are that a second 60% share of the vote for Gahan will not be forthcoming in 2015.

Of course, much depends on the quality of the opposition, and apart from Overton’s 57% in 1999, a Republican mayoral candidate has not gotten better than 52% of the vote since 1979. Bagshaw’s paltry 20% in 2011 was the lowest GOP share since Kenny Keilman (21%) in 1991, although in both cases, the Republican vote was diluted by an independent insurgency (Phyllis Garmon in 1991 and Jack Messer in 2011).

Interestingly, given an ongoing Democratic advantage in raw numbers throughout the period 1971 – 2011, and conceding the meaningless of party affiliation in New Albany (quite a few Democrats liked Bob Real in the 1970s and Mitt Romney in 2012, didn’t they?), it remains that a credible independent candidacy has never threatened to affect the Democratic share of the vote in like fashion.

Still, Bagshaw’s and Messer’s combined vote total in 2011 is close to what a Republican candidate would expect to get in a down year. The GOP’s problem in the city is that there have been no “up” years in a while. The Democratic Party has managed to retain a measure of its “one-party municipality” election-winning swagger, even without a platform of discernable principle, abetted in no small measure by an urban GOP of such breathtaking ineptitude that it would have more success picking candidates by blind draw than whatever the current method is, if any.

Naturally, there are numerous other factors at play, and I’m hardly Nate Silver. One is the trend toward shrinking overall vote totals. Since 1971, the three poorest turnouts for a mayoral race have come since 1999. The 7,007 votes cast for mayor in 2011 were a sickly 48% of the total when Warren Nash defeated Garnett Inman in 1971. It might be that whatever is left at this late date is fixed and predictable.

Consequently, I’m aware that this analysis is simplistic, but nonetheless, here’s how I read it.

Gahan’s 64% runaway in 2011 remains impressive, and it is just as unlikely to be repeated in 2015. Even the unstoppable Real could not improve on his lopsided 1975 performance in being re-elected in 1979, and the only candidate for re-election since 1975 to do better the second time than the first was Doug England in 1995 – and this owed to it being a two-person race without the presence of Garmon, the 1991 spoiler. If Gahan stands for re-election in 2015, there’ll be both historical precedent and performance erosion, the latter to be expected once a sitting mayor possesses a record to run upon, and for his opponent(s) to run against.

What’s more, in 2011 Messer, although at the time nominally a Democrat (come to think of it, which ones aren’t nominal?) likely took votes away from Bagshaw, the relatively unknown Republican, and not Gahan. Looking over the past three decades, the typical Democratic percentage in a winning mayoral effort is 54%, and it is reasonable to guess that Gahan will drop closer to this level in his 2015 re-election campaign.

If there is but one Republican candidate (Bagshaw is rumored to be considering a second attempt), his or her percentage should at least come closer to the 48% tallied by Hubbard in 2007. In a 2015 two-party mayoral race, this suggests a gap of 10-12 points, not 28 – perhaps 55% for Gahan and 45% for the Republican challenger, and that's still considerable.

But what if it isn’t a two-party race?

As we’ve seen, there have been two credible independent candidates since 1971, one of them (Garmon at 37%) much more credible than the other (Messer with 15%), but both serving to split the numerically inferior opposition to Democratic hegemony. What would happen if there were a strong third-party or independent candidacy capable of siphoning support from the numerically superior side, the Democrats -- one to unite the opposition??

Say, 10% or so, or even Messer’s 15%?

That just might result in a genuine race; if not enough to win (Garmon came tantalizingly close), an independent might have enough to produce an unpredictable scrum, lowering Gahan’s vote total to a level where the GOP, for once, gets lucky.

The platform for such an independent candidacy would be the essence of simplicity: Be a real progressive, and not a Dixiecrat; if only the Democratic Party saw it this way, there’d be no need for this analysis.

Almost surely, there exists a local bloc of left-leaning voters grudgingly tending toward the Democratic candidate as the lesser of two evils – if they’re voting at all. Take them away from the Democratic Party candidate, add them to voters tired of both traditional “sides,” and mobilize some of the thousands of voters who’ve recently been absent. Disseminate the message through the more contemporary mediums whose surfaces have barely been scratched by graying Democratic grandees who (shall we say) obtain their votes in more traditional ways. Shoot out the lights of conventional thinking, and shake … don’t stir.

It could be vastly entertaining, don’t you think? Meanwhile, here are the mayoral tallies, 1971-2007, courtesy of an old cached Tribune article.

1971: Democratic challenger Warren Nash defeats Republican incumbent Garnett Inman, 9,097 to 6,180.
Total votes: 15,277
Percentage: 60 - 40

1975: Republican challenger Robert Real defeats Nash, 9,264 to 4,763.
Total votes: 14,027
Percentage: 66 - 34

1979: Real defeats Democratic challenger John Stein, 6,637 to 3,801.
Total votes: 10,438
Percentage: 64 -36

1983: Democratic challenger Charles Hunter defeats Real, 6,148 to 5,888.
Total votes: 12,036
Percentage: 51 - 49

1987: Real defeats Hunter, 6,005 to 5,467.
Total votes: 11,472
Percentage: 52 - 48

1991: Democrat Doug England (4,785) defeats independent Phyllis Garmon (4,154) and Republican Kenny Keilman (2,344).
Total votes: 11,283
Percentage: 42 – 37 - 21

1995: England defeats Real, 6,573 to 5,628.
Total votes: 12,201
Percentage: 54 - 46

1999: Republican challenger Regina Overton defeats England, 5,512 to 4,205.
Total votes: 9,717
Percentage: 57 - 43

2003: Democratic challenger James Garner defeats Overton, 5,971 to 3,893; 196 votes cast for Melanie Hughes (Libertarian).
Total votes: 10,600
Percentage: 59 – 39 – 2

2007: England defeats Randy Hubbard (R), 4,017 to 3,741.
Total votes: 7,758
Percentage: 52-48

Sunday, March 03, 2019

The independent Dan Coffey for Mayor campaign launches this Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. at the library.


Dan Coffey will be making it official on Tuesday afternoon. He's running for mayor as an Independent candidate. As such, he's aiming for November, because the May primary is a parties-only gala.

Coffey for Mayor at Facebook

Speaking only for myself, I welcome CM Coffey to the race and believe he will play a constructive role in the dialogue to come. It is true that in the past we have clashed often, and there are points upon which we'll always differ, yet we share an appreciation for the merits of independence at a time when the two major political parties are ruefully toxic.

Say what you like about Coffey -- trust me, I probably already have -- but he deserves his shot at the high office. He has something to say, and doubtless will not hesitate to voice his thoughts. As for his prospects, they're up to the collective conscience of the city's voters.

Coffey for Mayor Campaign Announcement

My nearly 20 years of experience as a New Albany City Councilman have given me a unique perspective on City Government. I believe New Albany needs a Mayor dedicated to serving the people and not the "Party". I am your Independent candidate for Mayor. Please join me as I announce my Candidacy for Mayor of New Albany in the auditorium on the lower level. Doors open at 5:30 pm.

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

ON THE AVENUES: In the 3rd district, that "stepping aside" time finally has arrived.

ON THE AVENUES: In the 3rd district, that "stepping aside" time finally has arrived. 

A weekly column by Roger A. Baylor.

In 2019, ON THE AVENUES moves to Tuesday -- unless I change my mind again.

The Confidentials reside in New Albany’s 3rd city council district, made up of precincts 3, 5, 7 and 10. In the city as a whole, there are five other enumerated council districts and also three “at-large” council seats. In municipal elections, we vote for the mayor, the city clerk, and the council person in our own district, as well as three candidates from a slate to fill the at-large seats.

The 3rd district’s boundaries are the Ohio River on the south, and Silver Creek to the east. To the northeast, there’s a brief jagged frontier with the 5th district, but a clean division westward along Ekin. A weird salient juts to the north along 8th Street near where Grant Line Road begins, then Falling Run Creek forms the line in a southwesterly direction to where it crosses State Street, which forms the western extent of the 3rd, most of the way back to the riverbank. The 3rd district contains much of the city's revitalizing downtown business district as well as the usable portion of its waterfront.

Greg Phipps, our current council representative, took to Facebook on November 13, 2018 to announce that he’d be seeking a third term.

Now that the 2018 election cycle is over, and after much deliberation, I have decided to publicly announce my candidacy for the 2019 election. I will be seeking a 3rd term as the 3rd district councilman for the City of New Albany. If elected, I will continue my support for efforts to revitalize our historic downtown and mid-town neighborhood.

Some of us are so old that we can remember his oft-repeated disclaimer about personal suitability, as in 2014.


But I digress. We have eleven months to discuss this and other pressing matters. Before doing so, I’ve assembled a few statistics from the past two election cycles.

---

3rd district city council (precincts 3, 5, 7 and 10)

2015: municipal election (mayor, city council, city clerk; no state or federal offices)

4,130 registered voters
779 votes cast (19% turnout)
266 straight ticket (33% of all votes cast)

2018 mid-term election (county, state and federal offices)

4,209 registered voters
1,702 votes cast (40% turnout)
971 straight ticket (57% of all votes cast)

Straight ticket votes 2015 vs 2018

2015: 266
172 Democratic
94 Republican
0 Libertarian (none ran)

2018: 971
650 Democratic
303 Republican
18 Libertarian

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I'll leave you to make of these numbers as you will, with only a few disjointed observations. Unsurprisingly, straight tickets in the 3rd district more than tripled for each party in 2018. This has the appearance of an anomaly. Historically Democrats have far outnumbered Republicans in the 3rd, and in 2016 Hillary Clinton carried the day (except for the 10th precinct). Sadly, voters typically turn out in very low numbers for municipal election cycles.

All of this bodes well for Phipps' dynastic ambitions, or so we're led to believe.

During his career in politics, Phipps has experienced two primaries and two general elections. Not one has been a close contest. His debut race came in the 2011 Democratic primary, when he ran against two-term incumbent Steve Price.

COUNCIL DISTRICT 3
GREG PHIPPS. . . . . . . . . . 303 - 57.93%
STEVE PRICE. . . . . . . . . . . 220 - 42.07%

Phipps handily defeated Jameson Bledsoe in the 2011 general election. Running for re-election in the fall of 2015, he recorded 502 votes (63%) against 277 for his Republican opponent, Dale Bagshaw (37%).

Will Phipps even have a challenger in the 2019 Democratic primary? It seems unlikely. Party chairman Adam Dickey surely would discourage any such dissent given Phipps’ nearly perfect record of voting in accordance with Mayor Jeff Gahan.

However, if reliably blue-tinged voters in the 3rd district paid slightly closer attention to what Phipps, Dickey, Gahan and other local Democratic office holders actually do, as opposed to what they constantly say they’re doing, there might well be a progressive revolt against the status quo.

It’s revolt that should be occurring every single day.

At this juncture, allow me to insert a big caveat: for reasons I'll explain shortly, I'm not limiting this discussion to those who identity as "progressive." However, because the 3rd is blue, I'm opening the proceedings with blue terminology, and aiming my comments at blue voters. In fact, the solution to our present difficulties is far more ecumenical.

Imagine for a moment a younger progressive voter, one inspired in 2018 by the candidacies of Anna Murray, Liz Watson and Dan Canon – and disappointed by Republican wins in those races.

Now imagine Dickey’s forthcoming boilerplate: “Carry forward the progressive movement-building work of Anna, Liz and Dan by re-electing Jeff Gahan and Greg Phipps (and Bob Caesar, and Pat McLaughlin, ad nauseam).

Think about this sentiment for a moment. Have a nice, strong drink – if you can keep it down.

Granted, Phipps is an intelligent and pleasant fellow, and he plausibly can lay claim to suitably progressive public positions on social justice and human rights issues; he’s fought for one or the other of them on scattered occasions, though generally only when given explicit permission by the likes of spider-webmaster Dickey.

It’s just that Phipps has yet to utter the first peep of principled protest when these matters of basic human decency are blithely violated by Gahan, as in the obvious examples of the chaotic public housing takeover, City Hall's abysmal record of threatening and bullying both city employees and civilians, the mayor’s steadfast refusal to concede the existence of issues like homelessness and opioid addiction -- not to mention Gahan's personal addiction to campaign finance receipts.

Moreover, Phipps has yawningly rubber-stamped virtually every extravagant spending proposal ever minted by the mayor’s crack team of TIF juicers, the vast majority of which have been explicitly intended to encourage gentrification by benefiting higher-income segments of the city’s population, as well as fluffing a gigantic pool of pay-to-play special interests who donate profusely to Gahan for the privilege of profitable participation in these projects.

It’s enough to make a progressive’s blood boil – so why aren’t progressives in locales like the 3rd district mad as hell at the Floyd County Democratic party’s perennial bait and switch?

Well, it’s because no matter how low Gahan and his cronies go, the Democrats have the same answer:

Paraphrased: We might be shameless, bullying and conniving ward heelers, forever packing the political patronage machine full of cash drained from fat cat contract-seekers, rarely if ever keeping our word when it comes to disposable platform promises about fairness, dignity and equality of opportunity for those among us who are in the greatest need, and squelching free speech at every turn, but … but …

But what?

"BUT THE REPUBLICANS ARE EVEN WORSE."

Forever and always in Nawbany, this is the alleged “choice” given to us by local Democrats, and I have news for you: it isn’t.

It isn't a choice, and it isn't reason enough to justify excusing their transgressions.

If you’re a 3rd district left-leaning voter prone to taking Phipps’ word for being a spotless progressive just like you, I have two bits of advice. The first is to avoid misunderstandings by being sure both of you are using the word “progressive” in the same way. The second is to stop giving Phipps a free pass to be progressive when it suits him for one set of issues, and Gahanishly regressive as it pertains to another.

It’s early, and so far we don’t know what sort of candidate the GOP will field in the 3rd in 2019. The conventional wisdom is that Republicans simply can’t go higher than 35%-40% of the vote in the 3rd, and may not field a candidate. I simply shudder to think of Phipps grabbing a third term without an opponent in either the primary or the general election.

But what if I told you it isn’t impossible for a council candidate in the 3rd district to possess impeccable social justice and human rights credentials, while simultaneously embracing the Strong Towns approach of fiscal sanity, which emphasizes cumulative and sustainable grassroots strategies for economic development and quality-of-life enhancement, thereby avoiding those overloaded TIF One credit card debts?

After all, it's your children and grandchildren who’ll be paying those. I'm speaking of consistent, community-friendly precepts and policies across the board, and not just when Dear Leader graciously allows lip service to the principle.

As an added bonus, these precepts and policies also are in keeping with the instincts of many 3rd district residents who’d never in a million years think of themselves as progressive. 

Rather, they’re libertarian when it comes to social issues, and fiscally conservative on expenditures; they know a boondoggle when they see it, and have noticed that Gahan takes full credit for an inordinate amount of them.

In the end, the terminology and tags are junk. It's a local grassroots election, and it's about the place where we live.

The ideal candidate to match up in the 3rd district against Phipps is one who keeps government out of the private sphere, upholds the marketplace of free speech and expression, and regards human rights as non-negotiable; is serious about multi-modal transportation options and grasps the value of a walkable city; understands what small business ownership means and never once had "tenure" as a safety net for a household budget; busted ass in the trenches during the first generation of downtown revival and knows how much more remains to be done; views Gahan's personality cult and his fetish for branding a whole city in his own sad image as the height of absurdity; will put the district's people first and not fold like a house of cards when the party's hierarchy demands it -- because the ideal candidate is an independent, not a cog in the wheel-greasing of money machines.

Is it possible?

I think it is, so let's keep talking. Let me know where you stand.

---

Recent columns:

January 1: ON THE AVENUES: As a new year dawns, I’m existentially yours.

December 29: ON THE AVENUES: Another year older and deeper in debt, so let's doo-doo it all over again.

December 20: ON THE AVENUES: Truth, lies, music, and a trick of the Christmas tale (2018 Remix).

December 14: A joyful noise? The six most-read ON THE AVENUES columns of 2018.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

A reminder: Dennis Roudenbush for Floyd County Commissioner.


The meme is my creation, and addresses one of the campaign's fundamental issues: Do we really need the Democratic party chairman running county government on the down low, too? I think not, but that's the lesser of reasons why Dennis has my vote.

He's also the most experienced and qualified candidate, hands down, and at a time when (a) the hospital sale has Floyd County government awash with cash for the first time in living memory, and (b) county government tends to be populated by (shall we say) artless sorts, it's critical to have a practiced hand in a position to chock the inevitable partisan deal-making.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

New Albany mayoral election vote tallies, 1971 - 2011.


A year and a half ago, we took a look at some New Albany mayoral election tallies dating back to 1971, with accompanying analysis. I doubt Nate Silver is quivering in his boots, but feel free to click through and reread. The raw numbers are reprinted below.

May 1, 2014: ON THE AVENUES: Three’s company, two. Or four? Maybe more.

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1971: Democratic challenger Warren Nash defeats Republican incumbent Garnett Inman, 9,097 to 6,180.
Total votes: 15,277
Percentage: 60 - 40

1975: Republican challenger Robert Real defeats Nash, 9,264 to 4,763.
Total votes: 14,027
Percentage: 66 - 34

1979: Real defeats Democratic challenger John Stein, 6,637 to 3,801.
Total votes: 10,438
Percentage: 64 -36

1983: Democratic challenger Charles Hunter defeats Real, 6,148 to 5,888.
Total votes: 12,036
Percentage: 51 - 49

1987: Real defeats Hunter, 6,005 to 5,467.
Total votes: 11,472
Percentage: 52 - 48

1991: Democrat Doug England (4,785) defeats Independent Phyllis Garmon (4,154) and Republican Kenny Keilman (2,344).
Total votes: 11,283
Percentage: 42 – 37 - 21

1995: England defeats Real, 6,573 to 5,628.
Total votes: 12,201
Percentage: 54 - 46

1999: Republican challenger Regina Overton defeats England, 5,512 to 4,205.
Total votes: 9,717
Percentage: 57 - 43

2003: Democratic challenger James Garner defeats Overton, 5,971 to 3,893; 196 votes cast for Melanie Hughes (Libertarian).
Total votes: 10,600
Percentage: 59 – 39 – 2

2007: England defeats Randy Hubbard (Republican), 4,017 to 3,741.
Total votes: 7,758
Percentage: 52 - 48

2011: Democrat Jeff Gahan (4,506) defeats Republican Dale “DM” Bagshaw (1,389), Independent Jack Messer (1,024) and Libertarian Thomas Keister (88).
Total votes: 7,007
Percentage: 64 – 20 – 15 – 1

Saturday, October 24, 2015

C-J: "Roger Baylor 'certainly serious' about candidacy."


Yes, I certainly am.

Lexy Gross is the Courier-Journal's new Southern Indiana reporter, and I think she does a fine job distilling an hour of chat into this candidate profile.

The piece features a photo of me at Bank Street Brewhouse, and I think this association is fitting and proper. After all, it forms the basis for yesterday's column: My career as a double naught capitalist.

Roger Baylor 'certainly serious' about candidacy

... Baylor understands why it might be difficult for some New Albanians to consider him a "normal" candidate. He doesn't really fit into what people in the community consider a Democrat to be, and he's "never been a Republican."

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Must read: Drew Curtis explains exactly how an independent (like me) can win the New Albany mayoral race.


Kentucky gubernatorial independent candidate Drew Curtis actually was at the Public House just a few weeks ago when my old friend Mark Kocher came into town to represent at a Stone Brewing Company tap takeover.

AND I MISSED IT, AND DREW.

And Mark, for that matter.

Damn.

I'm sure Drew and I would have been discussing the points he makes in this amazing essay. Ostensibly, it's about his race in Kentucky, but the gist is applicable here in New Albany.

Op-Ed: Taking Parties Out of Politics

In the 1800s, political parties were candidates' social networks. Drew Curtis, founder of social networking news site Fark.com and Kentucky gubernatorial candidate, now asks if we still need parties in 2015.

 ... I believe a disruption is coming to electoral politics. If I don’t manage to pull off a disruption this November, it’s clear to me that someone else will manage it very soon. We’re seeing cracks appearing already within the parties themselves—nontraditional candidates are faring far better than traditional ones even within the parties on both sides of the aisle, with Donald Trump wreaking havoc among Republicans and Bernie Sanders steadily disrupting what seemed like a preordained win for Hillary.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Blair still troubled by word use, confuses council record with "independence."


"Serving the people, not the party."

So long as the people (a) live in or near the suburbs, (b) favor the usual subsidize/incentivize economic development models, (c) believe that only bankers are qualified to use terms like "cost-benefit analysis, and (d) view unlimited TIF bonding as the politician's version of Viagra ... then perhaps Scott Blair really does "serve" them.

Problem is, these planks are precisely the same ones espoused by Mayor Gahan and the DemoDisneyDixiecratic Party hierarchy. I cannot recall a time in four years when CM Blair has introduced an "independent" thought in council. He might well have been One Southern Indiana's propaganda coordinator.

So, as a humanities major, let me offer help with those pesky words: "Serving selected people and the party."

Now at least you're being honest, Scott.

Just not independent.

Looks like I have THAT side of the market cornered: Baylor for Mayor: 3 Goals + 7 Platform Points.

Monday, August 17, 2015

Campaign Diary, Chapter 3: Insurgencies, signage and conscience.


See also: 3 Goals + 7 Platform Points

Given the dysfunction of the two-party system in New Albany, running for mayor as an independent candidate is the only viable option for me, and I revel in the embrace of pragmatic ideas and simple common sense, these seemingly being precluded from the dialogue once the parties shift into gear with "politics as usual."

If the Democrats were more democratic, perhaps there'd have been another path, but to quote Gertrude Stein, "There is no there there."

With our local way of politicking stacked solidly against independence, it is important for an independent candidate like me to survey the landscape with realism.

I'm a maverick, an insurgent and an underdog. The political parties possess more money and foot soldiers than I can muster. Jeff Gahan has received thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from faraway PACs and contracting interests; meanwhile, I've managed roughly $300 in "outside" money, from Bloomington and Indianapolis.

In short, I'm a potentially dangerous and unconventional wildcard, underfunded and outnumbered -- or, exactly where I want to be. 

We'll be mixing old and new during the course of spreading the word, and here is an update.

---

Web site updates are under way this week, and video shoots begin tomorrow.

Many of you have asked for yard signs, and they're about to be ordered. Previously I've expressed reservations about these, and to be honest, I haven't entirely changed my mind about it, but ... and this is a big BUT ... I understand the dynamic of introducing the general public to who I am and what I stand for, and yard signs are a part of it. I also feel that if you want one, I want you to have one, and you'll get one.

We'll also be announcing guidelines for an upcoming art competition, also centering on yard signs of an edgier and more personalized nature. Stay tuned for details.

The formally sanctioned "debate" schedule is in place, and I'll write separately about it.

Also, I'm looking for a home for the two durable vinyl banners pictured above. If you have any ideas, please let me know. A downtown building would be groovy; so would a yard visible from the interstate. There are many potential spots, and I'm open to suggestions.

In closing, a few words on conscience.

Previously I wrote about the petition process for ballot access, during which there were rumblings of threats and retaliation on the part of signatories otherwise identified with the Democratic Party.

It is unfortunate when "group-think" is allowed to digress into hints of intimidation, but apparently it has. Ultimately, it remains my position that petitions, ballots and basic choice are matters of personal conscience, and I've neither the desire, nor any solid reason, to tamper with such.

Know this: If you support my independent candidacy, I'd rather you be able to express your preference openly, but I understand perfectly well if you cannot. Happily, many voters who ordinarily find themselves occupying a "side" based on factors beyond the actual issues (family, habit, compulsion at work, etc) may choose to preserve the outward appearance of conformity, while resolving internally to opt out of politics as usual and vote differently -- independently -- in 2015.

If so, merely let conscience be your guide. That's why the ballots are secret, and no one should be looking over your shoulder, anyway.

If the local Democratic Party machine wishes to be spiteful and vindictive, it's the machine's problem, not ours. It remains a mystery how the party's chairman contorts reality so as to square his pious bromides about "respectful" candidates with Dan Coffey's continued presence on the ballot as a "Democrat" -- but that's his problem, and a huge one.

As an independent, I just want to accomplish something, and you can help.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Duh: It's because Bernie Sanders is so easy to love.

Yellow dogs, inching closer to the right ... but seriously, I promise that Steve Winkler is not a pen name I've adopted when submitting articles to British publications.

Having another choice beyond Miller Lite and Bud Light? I find it exciting, and highly topical in a New Albany context.

Enter Sandman: why have Democrats fallen in love with Bernie Sanders?, by Steve Winkler (The Guardian)

 ... (Bernie Sanders) is not just some frumpy old white guy on a rant. He’s a seasoned, left-leaning politician primed to deliver a progressive message to a public both eager to embrace another option on the left and to be able to chose from more than just a Democrat or a Republican.

Political party designations are suspicious for someone, like me, who grew up in the southern United States, where Democrats ruled until the great 1970s switch-a-roo put Republicans in the driver’s seat. The “good ole boy” Democratic voters – the yellow dogs – gave themselves over entirely to the Republicans, while Democratic politicians, too, inched closer to the right, abandoning whatever principles they might have once had for the “triangulation” of Bill Clinton and the other Baby Boomer donkeys who sold out to the same corporate companies and tough-on-the-poor rhetoric as their counterparts across the aisle ...

 ... Socialism in 21st century America is a government that exists to serve the common people, the working people, the middle class, not an arm of the richest and most powerful segment of society. It’s a government that creates and nurtures policies that promote the best possible conditions for every citizen to have a healthy, prosperous, peaceful and productive life.

Sanders has been consistent on issues that impact the everyday lives of real Americans, and his platform is ambitious ...

Monday, July 06, 2015

Bernie Sanders: "I think the discontent of the American people is far, far greater than the pundits understand."

This interview is wide-ranging and worthy.

It should be fairly obvious that as a longtime independent socialist, Bernie Sanders the newly cast Democratic Party candidate is merely informing the party of what it should stand for without his prompting -- and how it cannot do so if its only premise for being is vast monetization equal to that of Republicans.

In short, there is much of relevance to the local struggle in New Albany.

So this is what I would like: I would like as many debates as possible, and I would also like to break new ground and have debates with Republicans and Democrats. I think that will be very positive for the American people in that we’ll be able to focus on issues.

If you're a progressive like me and unafraid of the tag, read the whole interview.

Bernie Sanders Speaks, by John Nichols (The Nation)

The title of our campaign, the working slogan, is “A Political Revolution.” That’s what this campaign is about. If it results in millions of people beginning to move in that direction, beginning to understand the potential of our country, what we can become; if people understand why we are where we are in terms of income and wealth inequality; if people begin to understand that participating in our democratic process is our patriotic duty and what people fought and died to defend; if people begin to stand up and say, “America is not supposed to be a country where 99 percent of all new income goes to the top 1 percent, or where the top one-tenth of 1 percent owns almost as much wealth as the bottom 90 percent… that is not what America is supposed to be”; if people begin to ask, “What can we do as Americans? How do we move to healthcare for all? How do we have the best educational system in the world? Let’s get involved in that discussion. Let’s make it happen”—if we accomplish that goal, I will be elected president of the United States. And even if I am not elected president of the United States, this country will be in much better shape for having made that effort.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

"Turn off the mainstream news and talk shows and search for alternative media. Read!"

The author is a tad excitable, though largely spot on. The problem locally is a paucity of independent candidates. On Sunday during Boomtown, two ranking Republicans asked me if I'd had any luck finding an independent candidate to run against Dan Coffey.

No, I said, but what about the GOP?

"A Republican can't beat him."

Perhaps the 1st can be dissolved, and the 2nd annex it.

Wait -- strike that ...

An English Lesson: ‘Never Give a Sucker …’, by Philip Farruggio (Nation of Change)

... This writer has made a determination to never support any candidate who runs as a Democrat. Of course, I never have or ever will support the wolves from the other side of the aisle. If it means leaving many blanks in my ballot, so be it. No, the time has come to vote for independent candidates who share our core values on key issues, not for the proverbial ‘ lesser of two evils ‘.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Green Mouse says: Randy Smith to contest 5th district council race ...

... as an independent.

In 2011, running as a Democrat, the Bookseller came tantalizingly close (less than two dozen votes) to snatching the seat away from Diane Benedetti.

In 2015, as we declare independence from DixieDemoDisneyism, Randy would be a valued independent presence on a cleansed council. Alas, it's only a rumor ... until it isn't,

Monday, May 12, 2014

On Mac Spainhour and the independents.

On the same day as a meaningless, hegemonic two-party partisan primary financed by the 87% skipping it, Mac Spainhour declared for Clark County sheriff as an independent.

Mac's a stand-up guy, and if I lived in Clark County, he'd get my support. His candidacy points yet again to the stifling inadequacies of America's two-party duopoly, and raises questions of independent campaign viability along the lines of those discussed in On the Avenues two weeks ago.

Hmm; 600-odd signatures. That's not hard at all. Here are two excerpts. First, the lead:

Spainhour enters Clark County sheriff’s race; Independent candidate gets community support, by Gary Popp (The Eclectic Observer)

JEFFERSONVILLE — Mac Spainhour is officially in the race for Clark County sheriff.

He filed a petition Tuesday with more than 650 signatures collected from area residents that allows him to enter the race as an independent candidate.

To become eligible to file as an independent, Spainhour said he was required to get 636 signatures, or 10 percent of the votes cast in the most recent Indiana Secretary of State election.

Spainhour, 53, Clarksville, retired from the Department of Natural Resources in 2011, after serving more than 27 years as a conservation officer in Clark County. He said he’s running as an independent because he believes that strict partisan ideologies can result in inefficient governing.

Now, try imagining a candidate in Floyd County conceding publicly that diversity is stimulating.

Spainhour said he has even been inspired by his own campaign committee, which is as diversified as it is dedicated.

“They are from different political parties, races and genders and it is really, really cool,” he said. “It makes you believe that the system can work. That people can get things accomplished. It is a great feeling to see Democrats and Republicans coming together.”

Good luck to Mac. I met him at IU Southeast, and he always had a clear idea of who he is and what he wants to be. He'd make a fine sheriff, assuming Clark Countians can get past that ridiculous "Democratic vs. Republican" impediment.

Thursday, May 01, 2014

ON THE AVENUES: Three’s company, two. Or four? Maybe more.

ON THE AVENUES: Three’s company, two. Or four? Maybe more.

A weekly web column by Roger A. Baylor.

The 2014 primary election is next Tuesday. It features drab county races, but I’ve been thinking about the city’s mayoral election in 2015. It’s never too early to begin contemplating the many intriguing possibilities.

In 2011, Jeff Gahan plainly dominated the contest. Not since Bob Real’s second consecutive blowout win in 1975 has there been such a wicked beat-down. It looked like this:

Jeff Gahan (Democrat) … 4,506 votes
Dale “DM” Bagshaw (Republican) … 1,389
Jack Messer (Independent) … 1,024
Thomas Keister (Libertarian) ... 88
Total votes: 7,007
Percentages: 64 – 20 – 15 – 1

On the face of it, Gahan looks unbeatable in 2015 – assuming he chooses to run for a second term. But my guess is that Gahan’s 2011 numbers won’t be repeated, because recent voting history does not support the likelihood of a second consecutive landslide.

For one thing, in 11 mayoral elections held since 1971 (see below), it generally has been the case that the higher the percentage of the vote in one’s first winning campaign, the greater chance of a precipitous drop-off the second time around.

Warren Nash went from 60% in 1971 to 34% in 1975. Regina Overton plunged from 57% in 1999 to 39% four years later. James Garner vanquished Overton with just shy of 60%, only to be defeated in the Democratic primary by Doug England in 2007.

Bob Real is the exception. In both 1975 and 1979, Real topped 60%, but fell to 49% in his third race in 1983 against Chas Hunter. Simply stated, the odds are that a second 60% share of the vote for Gahan will not be forthcoming in 2015.

Of course, much depends on the quality of the opposition, and apart from Overton’s 57% in 1999, a Republican mayoral candidate has not gotten better than 52% of the vote since 1979. Bagshaw’s paltry 20% in 2011 was the lowest GOP share since Kenny Keilman (21%) in 1991, although in both cases, the Republican vote was diluted by an independent insurgency (Phyllis Garmon in 1991 and Jack Messer in 2011).

Interestingly, given an ongoing Democratic advantage in raw numbers throughout the period 1971 – 2011, and conceding the meaningless of party affiliation in New Albany (quite a few Democrats liked Bob Real in the 1970s and Mitt Romney in 2012, didn’t they?), it remains that a credible independent candidacy has never threatened to affect the Democratic share of the vote in like fashion.

Still, Bagshaw’s and Messer’s combined vote total in 2011 is close to what a Republican candidate would expect to get in a down year. The GOP’s problem in the city is that there have been no “up” years in a while. The Democratic Party has managed to retain a measure of its “one-party municipality” election-winning swagger, even without a platform of discernable principle, abetted in no small measure by an urban GOP of such breathtaking ineptitude that it would have more success picking candidates by blind draw than whatever the current method is, if any.

Naturally, there are numerous other factors at play, and I’m hardly Nate Silver. One is the trend toward shrinking overall vote totals. Since 1971, the three poorest turnouts for a mayoral race have come since 1999. The 7,007 votes cast for mayor in 2011 were a sickly 48% of the total when Warren Nash defeated Garnett Inman in 1971. It might be that whatever is left at this late date is fixed and predictable.

Consequently, I’m aware that this analysis is simplistic, but nonetheless, here’s how I read it.

Gahan’s 64% runaway in 2011 remains impressive, and it is just as unlikely to be repeated in 2015. Even the unstoppable Real could not improve on his lopsided 1975 performance in being re-elected in 1979, and the only candidate for re-election since 1975 to do better the second time than the first was Doug England in 1995 – and this owed to it being a two-person race without the presence of Garmon, the 1991 spoiler. If Gahan stands for re-election in 2015, there’ll be both historical precedent and performance erosion, the latter to be expected once a sitting mayor possesses a record to run upon, and for his opponent(s) to run against.

What’s more, in 2011 Messer, although at the time nominally a Democrat (come to think of it, which ones aren’t nominal?) likely took votes away from Bagshaw, the relatively unknown Republican, and not Gahan. Looking over the past three decades, the typical Democratic percentage in a winning mayoral effort is 54%, and it is reasonable to guess that Gahan will drop closer to this level in his 2015 re-election campaign.

If there is but one Republican candidate (Bagshaw is rumored to be considering a second attempt), his or her percentage should at least come closer to the 48% tallied by Hubbard in 2007. In a 2015 two-party mayoral race, this suggests a gap of 10-12 points, not 28 – perhaps 55% for Gahan and 45% for the Republican challenger, and that's still considerable.

But what if it isn’t a two-party race?

As we’ve seen, there have been two credible independent candidates since 1971, one of them (Garmon at 37%) much more credible than the other (Messer with 15%), but both serving to split the numerically inferior opposition to Democratic hegemony. What would happen if there were a strong third-party or independent candidacy capable of siphoning support from the numerically superior side, the Democrats -- one to unite the opposition??

Say, 10% or so, or even Messer’s 15%?

That just might result in a genuine race; if not enough to win (Garmon came tantalizingly close), an independent might have enough to produce an unpredictable scrum, lowering Gahan’s vote total to a level where the GOP, for once, gets lucky.

The platform for such an independent candidacy would be the essence of simplicity: Be a real progressive, and not a Dixiecrat; if only the Democratic Party saw it this way, there’d be no need for this analysis.

Almost surely, there exists a local bloc of left-leaning voters grudgingly tending toward the Democratic candidate as the lesser of two evils – if they’re voting at all. Take them away from the Democratic Party candidate, add them to voters tired of both traditional “sides,” and mobilize some of the thousands of voters who’ve recently been absent. Disseminate the message through the more contemporary mediums whose surfaces have barely been scratched by graying Democratic grandees who (shall we say) obtain their votes in more traditional ways. Shoot out the lights of conventional thinking, and shake … don’t stir.

It could be vastly entertaining, don’t you think? Meanwhile, here are the mayoral tallies, 1971-2007, courtesy of an old cached Tribune article.

1971: Democratic challenger Warren Nash defeats Republican incumbent Garnett Inman, 9,097 to 6,180.
Total votes: 15,277
Percentage: 60 - 40

1975: Republican challenger Robert Real defeats Nash, 9,264 to 4,763.
Total votes: 14,027
Percentage: 66 - 34

1979: Real defeats Democratic challenger John Stein, 6,637 to 3,801.
Total votes: 10,438
Percentage: 64 -36

1983: Democratic challenger Charles Hunter defeats Real, 6,148 to 5,888.
Total votes: 12,036
Percentage: 51 - 49

1987: Real defeats Hunter, 6,005 to 5,467.
Total votes: 11,472
Percentage: 52 - 48

1991: Democrat Doug England (4,785) defeats independent Phyllis Garmon (4,154) and Republican Kenny Keilman (2,344).
Total votes: 11,283
Percentage: 42 – 37 - 21

1995: England defeats Real, 6,573 to 5,628.
Total votes: 12,201
Percentage: 54 - 46

1999: Republican challenger Regina Overton defeats England, 5,512 to 4,205.
Total votes: 9,717
Percentage: 57 - 43

2003: Democratic challenger James Garner defeats Overton, 5,971 to 3,893; 196 votes cast for Melanie Hughes (Libertarian).
Total votes: 10,600
Percentage: 59 – 39 – 2

2007: England defeats Randy Hubbard (R), 4,017 to 3,741.
Total votes: 7,758
Percentage: 52-48

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Stand up comic with a hidden agenda.

In his letter to the editor, Floyd County Republican Party chairman Dave Matthews tactfully (?) refrains from mentioning names, but we imagine he’s peeved at Jack Messer, Scott Blair, or perhaps both. That’s because the two independent candidates (for mayor and 6th district council, respectively) probably will take far fewer votes away from the Democratic front-runners in their races than from Matthews’ own handpicked candidates -- and remember how few Republicans actually declared in advance of last spring's primaries?

The world’s smallest violin is playing a tasteful lullaby. Yawn.

Candidates should be who they are

Voters, watch out for imitators! I already know of two cases where our “independent” candidates would have you think of them as Republican candidates ... unless, of course, you happen to be a Democrat. Telling you that they are the Republican candidate is not the truth.