On the lessons of the Ermin's relocation.

While walking downtown last Saturday night, we saw the “moving” sign on the window at Ermin’s. These days, if you wait too long to strike, the Tribune scoops you:

Ermin’s closes downtown, moves to Charlestown Road; Owner of Main Street restaurant cites lack of traffic at breakfast, dinner, by Eric Scott Campbell (News and Tribune).

Bob and Debby Haynes uprooted Ermin’s Bakery and Cafe downtown Saturday to move three miles north, the prospects of more traffic and tables outweighing the impact of a 40 percent spike in rent.

The new location is the former home of Bean Street Cafe, between a Subway and a Domino’s Pizza at 2736 Charlestown Road. Bob Haynes said Monday he expects to open next week.

As a fellow business owner, I wish them luck in the new location, where traffic flow indeed is heavier – though ominously, competition for the discerning diner’s discretionary income also is far greater.

That they’ll be moving to a location owned by a developer (Gary “The Gary” McCartin) with no apparent instinct for the downtown state of mind (or its potential for a certain demographic that he doesn’t try to comprehend) seems eerily appropriate, as their publicly stated rationale for the shift is the lack of sufficient downtown traffic and the slow pace of the Scribner Place development.

With no disrespect intended for the owners of Ermin’s, and accepting their sincerity and hard work as a non-negotiable given, it is nonetheless possible for us to consider such matters in the same fashion as we discuss coaching strategies in basketball or the “should haves” and “what ifs” of human history.

Having submitted my disclaimer, permit me to suggest that the business model of the New Albany branch of Ermin’s, and not traffic patterns or construction delays outside its walls, is the primary reason for the restaurant’s failure downtown and its subsequent change of venue.

The Ermin’s business model for downtown New Albany, and presumably for its other satellite in Kentucky, quite obviously has embraced the logistics of a relatively inexpensive catering operation rather than those necessary to provide genuine café ambience.

Most (perhaps all) of the food was brought in to the Main Street location from a central kitchen in Louisville, heated in microwaves, and served, like any fast food, with disposable plates, cups and utensils.

This may have made good business sense at the start, as start-up costs could be reduced, and the expense of operating a kitchen and a dishwasher fully avoided. However, it’s my opinion that once competition began to increase downtown, Ermin’s quickly lost several steps, and what’s more, other than tweaking opening hours, the café did very little to adapt its bill of fare and its mode of presentation to the obviously changing marketplace and expectations of downtown diners.

In short, at least two other establishments within a city block, both with warmer “dine in” atmospheres (Bistro New Albany and the reconstituted Main Street Café), began offering fresh, creative food prepared on the premises. While it’s true that BNA’s prices may have been 15-20% higher than Ermin’s, the food was served on real dishes with table service provided. Consider also Joy’s Coffee Nook, which served wraps and sandwiches, and with better coffee.

When La Rosita’s came into being, suddenly the Louisville area’s finest Mexican eatery was only a five-minute drive from Ermin’s. A longtime stalwart like Tommy Lancaster’s continued to pull its crowd irrespective of season and prevailing trend, and once again, provided a good value with pleasant atmosphere for people choosing to dine in.

In short, when Ermin’s first took up residence on Main Street, the competition was thin, and undoubtedly this was a primary reason for the owners taking the risk. However, increased competition exposed institutional weaknesses in the Ermin’s business plan, and if the café hadn’t moved now, it probably would have been forced to face the inevitable when the Treet’s café opens soon on Market Street.

Given these proliferating choices in an expanding competitive atmosphere, exactly what did Ermin’s do to differentiate itself from its competition, or to persuade the dining public to have a microwave casserole rather than visit the well-stocked steam table down the street or eat like kings at a critically praised Mexican eatery – both for the same price or perhaps less than Ermin’s?

Perhaps there’s hope for Ermin’s to ramp it up. When Bean Street Café was at the Slate Run location, there was a kitchen behind the counter, and at least some baking took place on site. Is it still there? If so, perhaps the Ermin’s model will be updated and adapted to new circumstances.

But it isn’t going to be easy. Even with more cars passing Lauren’s Corner, Ermin’s now must compete with the very popular Los Indios Mex-Mex, with national chains on both sides of Ermin’s, with Sam’s Food & Spirits, and with those cheap and tasty hot dogs cooked without pretense on the Thornton’s spits -- and out beyond the Interstate, there’s a whole exurb filled with dining alternatives, ranging from Japanese to Cajun, from Tumbleweed to Bearno’s.

In closing, allow me to stress again that none of this should be construed as criticism of Ermin’s. In my own business, I’m aware that as secure as one might feel at any given time, the marketplace remains forever volatile. With the possible exception of certain self-proclaimed “progressive” councilmen, nothing in the world actually stands still. Flux is a constant. Guessing which way it will travel can be maddening.

To succeed in selling anything, one must know the product, know the market, and know his or her own aptitudes and abilities. All these factors are subject to change, to modification, to improvement, and to regression.

As for me, I’m sure of few things in life, and this is one: In business, as in nature, certain fundamental things still apply. Consequently, you evolve … or, disturbingly often, you die.

Good luck to Ermin’s in its new location.