Embarrassment as "the Donnelly campaign demonstrates the futility of seeking to surmount these obstacles by trying to out-Republican the Republicans."

This guy who wrote this piece teaches at Indiana University, the same place where Romeo is playing basketball.

The Guardian is big-time, so please pay attention.

Are there any questions?

The Democrats shouldn't move right to win Trump voters. Here's why, by Jeffrey C Isaac (The Guardian)

The midterms showed that pandering to Trumpism is a recipe not just for defeat but for demoralization. Even losing progressive campaigns brought hope

 ... How should the Democrats move forward with an eye toward 2020 and beyond? There are no easy answers, and in the weeks and months to come many answers will be debated. Democrats scored most of their victories in more or less liberal suburban and urban areas where Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and experienced defeat in much of Republican “red state” America, and especially the rural areas, where Trump won in 2016. Do the Democrats need to do better in these conservative, “red” areas? Certainly. Should Democrats attempt this by running candidates who play to the right and appeal to elements of Trump’s base? Many pundits are already stepping forward to urge this. I disagree. And the case of my home state of Indiana is instructive.

Is it ever.

One of the most striking Democratic losses on Tuesday was the resounding defeat of the incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly by conservative Republican Mike Braun. 

The word "loss" simply doesn't convey the odiousness.

The worst features of Trumpism dominated the Indiana Senate race. How did Donnelly respond? By emphasizing his closeness to Trump and the fact that he voted with Trump over 60% of the time, and by campaigning not against his rightwing attackers but against the left of his own party, running his own anti-immigrant, anti-liberal, and red-baiting ads.

It was a destructive and cynical calculation that severely compromised Donnelly’s integrity. More importantly, it was an abysmal political failure. Indiana voters drawn to Trumpism demonstrated on Tuesday that they strongly preferred a real, unadulterated Trumpist to a Democratic facsimile. And so Donnelly lost. First his soul, and then the election. A significant Democratic defeat.

Let's repeat that: "They strongly preferred a real, unadulterated Trumpist to a Democratic facsimile." And yet, how many self-styled local "progressives" voted for Donnelly and Liz Watson?

Area chiropractors should be having a field day.

Democrats lost big in Indiana. But some electoral losses can be seen as ethical and even political victories. And so I turn to Indiana’s ninth congressional district, and to the effort of Democrat Liz Watson to unseat one-term incumbent Republican Trey Hollingsworth.

As we already know, Watson also lost big.

In a way, the electoral margin underestimates the power of (her) loss. For while Watson campaigned tirelessly for months, holding town halls in every county in the district, Hollingsworth did virtually nothing. He held no town hall meetings, and he refused to debate Watson even once. One of the richest men in Congress and a beneficiary of all of the Trumpist support thrown to Republicans in the state, Hollingsworth demonstrated a cynical contempt for the competitive elections and public accountability that are the hallmarks of constitutional democracy. And he won.

Hollingsworth’s victory is a devastating blow for Indiana liberal Democrats, and it underscores just how stacked is the deck against Democrats in the state, who confront a trifecta of serious obstacles: gerrymandered districts profoundly favoring Republicans; garden-variety Republican voter suppression; and a general electorate demographically inclined towards and seriously mobilized by the right.

At the same time, while the Donnelly campaign demonstrates the futility of seeking to surmount these obstacles by trying to out-Republican the Republicans, the Watson campaign demonstrates the potential for something better ... Unlike Donnelly, she refused to turn on her own base. Instead, she tried hard to expand that base. Watson lost, indeed by roughly the same margin that Donnelly lost. But while Donnelly inspired widespread disillusionment among liberal Democrats, Watson inspired hope, in the promise of citizen activism, and in the possibility of a better Democratic party.

The author goes on to make the point that Watson's loss can be rationalized according to future-oriented strategy, while that might possibly be gained from Donnelly's dopey foolishness is a desire to take as many showers as possible in a futile effort to out-distance the taint.

Meet Joseph Albert “Trey” Hollingsworth III, the biggest goober in Washington.

As borrowed from Facebook, this profile effectively rests the case. It remains that I have significant issues with the Democratic dumb-ocracy, but voting in favor of Hollingsworth isn't something I plan on doing in this or any other lifetime.   

---

This is a profile of Joseph Albert “Trey” Hollingsworth III, the biggest goober in Washington.

As his name might lead you to suspect, he has been rich since before conception. His father, Joe Jr., is a prominent Tennessee capitalist who, in addition to owning “the largest developer for semi-rural industrial property in the Southeast,” [1] is known for an “adventuristic nature” that “expands beyond taking risks with start-ups, stocks and investments” to “hang gliding in Rio de Janeiro, racing Formula 1 cars and deep sea fishing off the Great Barrier Reef.” [2]

But Trey overcame his hardscrabble upbringing and in 2005, at the age of 22, founded Hollingsworth Capital Partners, which “purchases, renovates and repositions underperforming industrial and distribution investment property throughout the nation.” [3] His daddy is a silent partner.

A decade later, Trey decided to move to Southern Indiana and buy himself a seat in the US Congress, furnishing his campaign with over $3.1 million of his own money -- 88.4% of the total amount raised by the Hollingsworth 2016 effort. This was supplemented by $1.5 Million that the Hollingsworth Companies donated to Indiana Jobs Now, a Super PAC his father created for the sole purpose of getting Trey elected (and which he terminated weeks after achieving this goal). Mostly, this fortune went to TV ad buys, which were enough to marshal 34% of the competitive Republican primary vote, securing Trey the opportunity to face a Democrat in Indiana’s gerrymandered 9th District. Then, he rode the anti-Clinton wave straight to Washington, DC.

(Campaign finance epilogue: At the end of the race, Trey still owed the strangely repetitive sum of $246,246 to his pollster and other political consultants, so he, of the nearly $60 Million asset portfolio, asked his colleagues for help paying up. “Representative-elect Hollingsworth,” said a senior campaign adviser, “is extremely appreciative of those willing to help retire campaign debt that is owed to vendors.”) [4]

My favorite detail about his 2016 run is his approach to the press, summarized neatly in this excerpt from a profile in Slate: “The 9th District... doesn’t have much local media, and Hollingsworth frequently dodged what media there was. When he did agree to interviews, he often evaded, even on seemingly benign questions. He declined to release his tax returns. When someone asked him to name his three favorite Hoosiers, he declined to do that, too. One reporter asked him where he’d lived before moving to Indiana; ‘I’ll have to go back,’ Hollingsworth said, speaking about his own life, ‘and check the record.’ Pressed on when exactly he moved to Indiana, he finally answered with early summer. Another reporter tried to clarify whether that meant June or July. ‘I think that’s a good characterization,’ Hollingsworth said.” [5]

In his 22 months in Congress, Trey has maintained this demanding level of constituent accountability, appearing in zero public in-district town halls since being sworn in. His sacrifices in the name of transparency reached their peak one week at the end of 2017, during the fight over the Free Millions for Billionaires Bill, or as it was more commonly known, “tax reform.”

One provision of the initial draft of that bill would have taxed tuition remissions, which low-wage graduate students receive, as income, meaning workers earning roughly $15,000 a year would be taxed as though they were earning around four times as much. Indiana University being the largest employer in the district, Trey’s constituents did not all smile on this prospect. Specifically, on the evening of Monday, December 11, Campus Action for Democracy grad students staged a sit-in in his office in Greenwood, demanding to hear from Trey.

Rather than call and speak to them, Trey and his DC-based security chief issued two instructions: 1) that the building manager allow the protesters to stay in his office, but have the police restrict them from going into the hall, where the bathrooms are, and b) that his pregnant staffer supervise the student demonstrators for as long as they continued the occupation. So, as the occupiers explain in this video [6], they spent hour after hour with no access to bathrooms or contact with the outside world, never quite managing to get arrested for the cause.

Four days later, on December 15th, the Scott County Chamber of Commerce announced a Koch Brothers-sponsored “Tax Reform Town Hall” [7] with Trey. It was open to the public, with a few minor provisos: 1) Attendees had to register that very day on Eventbrite, 2) The Eventbrite link didn’t work, 3) The Town Hall was to take place in three days, on a Monday, 4) at 8 o’clock in the morning, 5) one week before Christmas, and 6) in the tiny town of Scottsburg. (Scott County, of which Scottsburg is the seat, gained some notoriety years earlier when then-Governor Mike Pence closed the local Planned Parenthood clinic, the county’s only site for HIV testing. [8] When, two years later, the worst HIV outbreak owing to needle-sharing in US history broke out in Scott County, Pence took three months to permit a temporary needle exchange, in which time nearly 200 Scott County residents were notified of an HIV-positive diagnosis.)

How did the Town Hall ultimately go? Citing a mysterious “threats of violence,” Trey cancelled the event. [9] A spokesperson said that, on the recommendation of Capitol Police, they would not release any details. That very same day, I swear before God, he posted on Facebook that, due to a fire in the building, the Greenwood office -- which students had occupied precisely one week earlier -- would be closed for re-construction until January 3rd.

The fire’s devastation was evidently total: no one survived to manage to get it reported in the local paper.

In the end, Trey voted for the Free Millions for Billionaires Bill, and made out like a bandit, handing himself $4.5 Million via the law’s “Pass-Through Tax Deduction” -- more than any other Member of Congress. The Grad Student Tax was removed from the final bill, and I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t believe me that he personally called Tracey, the lead organizer of Campus Action for Democracy, to explain how hard he had worked to strike that unconscionable provision.

At this point, a lot of people have noticed that Trey spends about as much time in Indiana’s 9th, now that he represents it, as he did a couple years back, before he moved to it. Liz Watson, his Democratic challenger, has repeatedly invited him to a joint candidate forum, as have several non-partisan press outlets and organizations, including Hoosier Action and Campus Action for Democracy. Citing whatever and also this other thing, he has declined these invitations.

In the Republican Primary this year, a man named James Dean Alspach challenged Trey. He did not campaign. He barely posted a website. [10] His team, whoever they were, stapled up a bunch of lawn signs that said “James Dean” and showed his face. “If I win this primary,” he told WLKY News Louisville [11], “I’m going to announce my intentions to run for President as James Dean.” Detecting the interviewer’s confusion, Dean clarified: “So my whole focus in the Congress is to legislate for my Presidency.” He got nearly a quarter of the vote.

Trey is vulnerable, especially because he is facing an unusually strong candidate in Watson, a labor attorney who wrote the federal legislation on a $15 minimum wage, a staunch supporter of Medicare for All, and a friend to Pramila Jayapal, Bernie Sanders and around twenty labor unions. Her campaign has been so impressive -- raising over $1 Million, with nearly 50,000 contributions averaging under $40 -- that the DCCC added Indiana’s 9th, which Trey won by 14 points and Trump won by 25 -- into its “Red to Blue” class of swing seats.

In collaboration with the Working Families Party, Hoosier Action is running an independent expenditure on her behalf. Between our work, Watson’s strengths, Trey’s weaknesses, the mood of the country, and Sen. Donnelly’s rise in the polls, I think we might just be able to scale this immense mountain of a political effort and unseat the biggest goober in Washington, Joseph Albert “Trey” Hollingsworth.

The third.

[1] https://hollingsworthcos.com/about/history/founder/
[2] https://hollingsworthcos.com/…/04/EntrepreneurialOdyssey.pdf
[3] https://www.inc.com/profile/hollingsworth-capital-partners
[4] https://www.usatoday.com/…/millionaire-congressma…/95446364/
[5] http://www.slate.com/…/can_tennessee_s_trey_hollingsworth_b…
[6] https://www.facebook.com/campusactionfordemocracy/videos/526096767775024/
[7] http://www.scottchamber.org/…/tax-reform-town-hall-with-con…
[8] https://www.huffpost.com/…/mike-pence-indiana-hiv_n_57f53b9…
[9] https://www.indystar.com/…/indiana-congressman-c…/961036001/
[10] http://www.jamesdeanushouse.com
[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x8uXa_qBa0

According to FiveThirtyEight, Trey Hollingsworth (R) is likely to defeat Liz Watson (D) in November.

FiveThirtyEight offers three House forecasts, none of which bode well for Liz Watson (D), who is challenging incumbent Trey Hollingsworth (R) in the 9th district congressional race.

How do you like your House forecast?

Lite: Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say

Classic: I’ll take the polls, plus all the “fundamentals”: fundraising, past voting in the district, historical trends and more

Deluxe: Gimme the works — the Classic forecasts plus experts’ ratings

It's a grim prognosis.

Lite forecast: 98.2% chance the Republican (Hollingsworth) wins 61.8% - 38.2%

Classic forecast: 78.3 chance the Republican (Hollingsworth) wins 53% - 47%

Deluxe forecast: 90% chance the Republican (Hollingsworth) wins 55% - 45%

From a national perspective, FiveThirtyEight provides a bit of relief for Democrats.

Considering the source? I read something at FiveThirtyEight almost every day.

FiveThirtyEight. | Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.

Caufield makes the case for Canon for Congress.

Kate Caufield's name has appeared in the Tom May Compendium so often this year that she's almost as ubiquitous as, well, Tom May himself.

I had a letter to the editor in support of Dan Canon and Canon For Indiana printed in the News and Tribune today. If you live in IN-9, please consider casting your vote (if you haven’t already) for Dan. He is as real as real gets.

As of 9:00 p.m. Friday night, the "letters to the editor" section of the on-line Tom May Anthology hadn't been updated since April 24, so here's the letter in its entirety, as copied from her post on Facebook.

--

I’ve lived in the 9th district of Indiana since we moved here in 1988- when I was 12.

I’ve experienced middle school, high school, college, and now my career and child raising years here in this incredibly dynamic district of this beautiful state. I’ve seen candidates and politicians come and go: Some were elected, some were not; some made changes for the better; some did not.

I’m not a believer in negative campaigns. However, I AM a believer in true representation by an elected official. To that end, I’d like to raise a concern about Canon’s opponent, Liz Watson. While Liz may truly believe in what she thinks is best for this district, she hasn’t been here to experience all of the changes that IN-9 has gone through in the past 10-15 years.

Instead, she’s spent the past decade plus working and living in Washington, DC- most recently with the House Democrats, and including doing work lobbying with the National Women’s Law Center. To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with her career choices or her decision to move away from the 9th district. In doing so, however, she made her preferred choice known: DC over Indiana. When she chose to move home, it came with an ask: Send me back to DC with your money and your votes. As a constituent of IN-09, that troubles me greatly. How can you represent me, when you haven’t the faintest idea how the past decade has shaped the district?

That said, never have I been more excited to vote for a candidate than I am in this primary election. Dan Canon has chosen to live in IN-9 for most of his life, and knows the struggles of these past 30 years as the district has endured as our country has changed. He’s fought for the values that I believe wholeheartedly in: Equality for all, and human dignity. He didn’t just start fighting for them, though- he’s been doing it long before the thought of running for a political office crossed his mind.

Because of his passion and his commitment for living here, and knowing all of the unique things that make this district what it is, Dan Canon is who will have my vote ‪on May 8.‬

Roger encourages you to vote for Dan Canon for Congress.

It’s been a while since NA Confidential attempted any sort of comprehensive candidate endorsement slate, although on occasion individual aspirants have been singled out for praise.

This blog is a one-man show, and there isn’t an editorial board. Maybe there should be, as composed of friends and volunteers. That’s something to consider for the general election, but not for the primary, apart from letting readers know which candidates made public statements about the NAHA putsch.

Election Day draws near. Find out which candidates have issued public statements about Deaf Gahan's public housing acreage takeover.

That said, the Confidentials voted this morning at the clerk’s office, and my vote went to Dan Canon for 9th district congressman.

Ironically, last week I was walking up Main Street and ran into Liz Watson, Canon’s opponent, who was out canvassing. A third candidate, Rob Chatlos, also appears on the Democratic ballot.

Watson’s campaign manager was with her, and when she asked me if she had my vote, he interjected: “He (Roger) is a Canon guy.”

I nodded, and she asked why. I told her that as a leftist/socialist in a Northern European mold, Canon’s platform jibes more closely with my point of view. That’s the truth of the matter.

But there’s something else.

Watson appears to have the support of the local Democratic establishment, and if we’re speak here about endorsements, seeing 15 of Watson’s yard signs cluttering John Rosenbarger’s lawn emphatically isn’t one of them. The local Democratic “brain trust” is the problem, not the solution, and most of them are supporting her.

Some of my closest friends disagree, and that’s okay. In terms of conscience, my primary reason for supporting Canon is the strength of his platform, not my writhing revulsion with Adam Dickey’s usual beige suspects.

Canon’s platform is not perfect. Almost nothing is said about foreign policy, especially American war-mongering around the globe. I’ll be asking Dan for more substance on foreign policy in the run-up to the general election.

And if Watson wins?

Dude, when it comes to the pressing issues of the day, I’m no friend of Trey Hollingsworth.

I’m also sick and tired of voting “against” Republicans by voting “for” the inanity of the Democratic National Committee’s neoliberal cash envy.

Ask me again next Wednesday.

Until then, my personal endorsement goes to Dan Canon for Congress.

Liz Watson's statement about public housing concerns in New Albany focuses on the federal.

We're passing these candidate statements along as Aaron Fairbanks of We Are New Albany harvests them; all along, our stance at NA Confidential has been that any primary election contestant who'll actually make a public statement addressing the Democratic mayor Jeff Gahan's hostile takeover of public housing, and his subsequent assaults on our city's most vulnerable populations, at least merits consideration for voting -- as opposed to the ones who have refused to comment at all.

As to the quality and content of these statements ... well, we'll get to that when there's time, but dear reader, your thoughts are welcome in the interim.

Late Friday evening, Fairbanks published the long-awaited statement of 9th district congressional candidate Liz Watson (D). At Facebook, this was followed by a brief and revealing discussion between Fairbanks and Mike Bainbridge, former Director of Finance and HUD Compliance at the New Albany Housing Authority. For background on why Bainbridge left, there's this:

Gahan's NAHA putsch continues to dazzle the DemoDisneyDixiecrats, so let's ask Irving Joshua about zero threshold, employee drug testing and the status of "interim."

Watson's statement comes first, then the follow-up conversation, followed by links to previous installments in this series.

---

Public Statement of 9th District Congressional Candidate, Liz Watson

AFFORDABLE HOUSING

Working Americans are facing a housing crisis. Eleven million of us pay over half our income for rent, and by 2025 that number could be at over fifteen million. At the same time, low-income housing has fallen by more than 60 percent since 2010. Housing is too expensive, and there’s not enough of it to go around. ​Long waiting lists for public housing leave people homeless or living in substandard conditions for years. The shortage of public housing has reached crisis levels.

The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit ​(LIHTC) gives states and localities the ability to make almost $8 billion in tax credits for the acquisition, rehabilitation, and new construction of low-income rental housing. It is our most important tool in increasing the stock of affordable housing, is capped far below the level of need for millions of Americans.

We can do better. ​I support Representative Suzan DelBene’s Access to Affordable Housing Act, which would increase the LIHTC by fifty percent. That would result in as many as 400,000 more affordable housing units over the next ten years, easing the shortages that force families and communities to make impossible choices. I also support the bipartisan Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act; that would increase the program’s ability to serve Americans who are most in need, and it would help to preserve existing affordable housing stock. And I know that we need to boost funding​ for the National Housing Trust Fund, so that we can provide desperately needed assistance to families.

It is heartening that under the spending bill passed in March of 2018, HUD received an increase of $3.9 billion for FY 2018, for a total of nearly $43 billion in funding (which was $12 billion more than the President’s budget request).

And while the reduction in the corporate tax rate had the indirect effect of diminishing the attractiveness of the housing tax credit to investors, the spending bill boosted allocations for the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit by 12.5% over the next four years, repairing that damage.

Our public housing has $26 billion in unmet renovation needs, and our fellow Americans are suffering in winter when their worn-out heating systems fail. I would work to ensure that funding levels at HUD are substantially increased to provide adequate funding for the needed rehabilitation of public housing.

New Albany, for example, is currently struggling with underfunding and poor conditions in many of its federally funded public housing units. The New Albany Housing Authority is in the midst of assessing the state of public housing to determine the physical conditions of existing units. The city is also in the midst of taking inventory of existing housing stock for which housing choice vouchers could be used. Any changes to public housing – even the best improvements – will inevitably be challenging for public residents who are directly affected.

That is why it is so important that federal law provides key safeguards for public housing residents during any demolition or renovation. To receive federal funding to support any needed improvements to public housing, local housing authorities must first submit a plan to the federal government for approval.

Moreover, federal law provides protections for public housing residents who are displaced due to renovation or demolition. The Uniform Relocation Act’s protections and assistance apply to the acquisition, rehabilitation, or demolition of real property for federal or federally funded projects. Under the Uniform Relocation Act of 1970, people who live in federally-supported housing cannot be required to move unless at least one “comparable decent, safe, and sanitary (DSS) replacement dwelling is made available to you.” As a member of Congress, I would work to ensure that the rules of the Uniform Relocation Act are followed whenever federally-funded public housing is being demolished or rehabilitated and that HUD exercises appropriate oversight over changes to existing public housing.

The public housing crisis in our nation is one we can solve. In the richest country in the world, no one should have to choose between paying for food or paying rent. ​With the right leadership in Congress, we can make housing affordable again for millions of Americans.

---

Mike Bainbridge: 
"The problem with this statement related to NAHA's situation is that the Uniform Relocation Act doesn't apply to Section 18 (of the Housing Act of 1937) demo/dispo activities and a Section 18 application is exactly what they are planning to submit to HUD. So all those tenant protections under the Uniform Relocation Act that Liz mentions will not have to be provided to NAHA's displaced tenants (if Duggins and Gahan are able to push the Section 18 application through HUD's approval process)."

Aaron Fairbanks:
"I noticed the same thing, Mike. While I'm all for getting the candidates to open up a dialogue on this subject after over a year of complicit, public silence, I'm disappointed that some of the candidates took the statements as an opportunity to repeat talking points and rally behind the local administration's narrative.

"There were certainly better ways to navigate this issue, while working to get a better understanding of it. I'm extremely thankful to the candidates that navigated this a bit more carefully. Many of the candidates took the opportunity to issue preliminary statements, while working to better understand the issue at hand. I commend them for using their platform to shine a light on this issue."

Aaron Fairbanks:
"I had a misstatement, similar to Liz's misstatement. The URA doesn't have a one-for-one replacement unit requirement, just a requirement that comparable housing be made available as Liz's statement suggested.

"I, also, went back and checked on Section 18 demolition and disposition, and there's a comparable unit requirement.

"As best as I can understand, it's unlawful for a public housing agency to make "current residents" homeless by execution of demolition under Section 104(d), RAD, Section 18 or the URA. That doesn't mean that PHAs cannot significantly disrupt current residents' lives by forcibly displacing families from New Albany, costing them access to services that they rely on where they currently live, etc.

"It, also, doesn't stop a PHA from jeopardizing the long-term housing security of current residents, those on waiting lists and future applicants of housing assistance. Candace sent me a message from one of the former NAHA residents relocated with a voucher before the demolition of some of the Broadmeade units last year. According to that former resident it has been extremely difficult finding landlords that will so much as accept the voucher, which is one of the concerns of the multitude of housing advocates that have commented on this issue. The City and the New Albany Housing Authority are determined to demolish more than half of the public housing stock in the middle of an affordable housing shortage for the entire Louisville Metro Surrounding area. While "current residents" may not be found homeless through relocation, they may certainly find themselves homeless thereafter with some 500 or 600 fewer units of affordable housing left available."

---

Previously: 

Kudos to congressional candidate Rob Chatlos for his direct and honest support of public housing residents threatened by Jeff Gahan's putsch.

Read Dan Canon's statement about the issue of public housing in New Albany.

Three more candidates have provided statements to We Are New Albany about their positions on Jeff Gahan's public housing demolition fetish.

Grooms, Murray join Clere in addressing public housing concerns during NAHA candidate forum.

We Are New Albany press release, Part Two: "We Are New Albany endorses Republican candidate Ed Clere of Indiana State House of Representatives, District 72."

Democratic State Senate candidate Anna Murray replies to our question about the New Albany Housing Authority.

Councilman Al Knable: "I haven't given a formal public statement on NAHA but I'm happy to respond here."

Amanda Beam's excellent newspaper column is called "Polling position."

The recent poll generated by Liz Watson's campaign was snapped up with lightning speed by the News and Tribune, elevating just another social media tout redolent of the AdamBot's knee-pants DNC tactics primer to the status of genuine news item. I find this regrettable, given that the newspaper hasn't offered the same freebie to surveys subsequently released by Dan Canon's campaign.

Either both these question-asking efforts are sufficiently reputable for newspaper coverage, or neither. I can't determine why one is, and the other isn't, although it is at least gratifying that management allowed Amanda Beam's excellent column to be published.

The past week has been critical for me in making a final decision about how to vote in May. I've leaned Canon from the start; admittedly, there's a final piece of the puzzle to be pressed into place, and I trust it will.

In the interim, merely remember that when the party establishment is the problem, party establishment candidates push no favorable buttons with me. If you have access to the newspaper's articles, I strongly encourage reading the entire column. Meanwhile, here's the middle section of it.

BEAM: Polling position, by Amanda Beam

... Fast forward a few days. I noticed an article on social media that revealed one of the results of the poll I had taken. However, not included was who had commissioned the survey or the questions they asked in the order they had appeared.

Call me crazy — again — but if a campaign paid for a survey I find it difficult to treat the results as valid.

So if you know me and my big mouth, then you would understand I could only do one thing. I spoke up not so eloquently on social media. Citing my own experience with the survey, I questioned who commissioned the poll and, ultimately, its validity.

Sometimes when you ask questions you get great responses. Other times you get insinuations that you are a mindless twit.

I got both ...

Today in Dueling Polls, Team Canon returns fire: "Canon for Indiana’s Voter Survey Shows Commanding Lead and Unprecedented Field Program."

It's a contested primary, and you always knew at some point, as sides began to be chosen ...

AdamBot and Pinocchio photo credit: N and T.

... there'd be a volley or three. After all, one of them must lose in the primary; it truly can be about Tennessee Trey only after there is a winner between them.

Yesterday Liz Watson landed the first poll punch, and the News and Tribune swiftly swallowed the bait.

Poll shows Watson with double-digit lead over Canon

Today Dan Canon's forces strike back (text pasted below).

Does this mean the newspaper's next bold headline will read, "Poll shows Canon with double-digit lead over Watson"?

Enquiring minds and all ...

---

For Immediate Release
March 8, 2018
Contact: Dustin Collins
812-946-0181
DCollins@CanonForIndiana.com

Canon for Indiana’s Voter Survey Shows Commanding Lead and Unprecedented Field Program

New Albany, Indiana - As of March 6th, the Canon for Indiana team - with more than 250 interns (the most in Indiana University history) and over 1,200 volunteers - have made 118,417 voter touches. Results from these show Canon with a commanding lead, particularly with the 30,000+ new voters registered across the district - more than 14,000 of whom were registered by the Canon campaign.

Canon’s lead is overwhelming when including leans, despite 47% of voters remaining undecided. Additionally, the campaign has already identified enough supporters who have committed to vote for Canon to win in a typical turnout scenario and is approaching necessary voters to win with a record turnout.

“These results are based on tens of thousands of conversations. Unlike a paid poll conducted by a D.C. firm with a few hundred respondents, this method is designed to find our supporters, to mobilize them when voting begins, and to identify supporters of other candidates and undecideds so we can target who we speak to. It’s not a question after a long list of positives on our candidate and negatives of others. We simply asked, ‘who do you plan on supporting in the upcoming primaries’. There were no options provided and respondents self-picked Dan or another preferred candidate,” Campaign Manager Dustin Collins said. “We do not believe numbers for our opponents are actually this low, but the larger story is we are close to finding an outright majority that has committed to voting for Dan in the primary.”

“Our campaign has been about building a majority since day one. We’ve contacted more voters than every other Democratic candidate in the state combined and as a result we’re identifying the voters needed to win and have built a volunteer infrastructure to ensure these voters turn out to cast their votes for Dan,” Collins continued. “I am incredibly proud to be a part of such a record-setting team that is laying the groundwork needed to beat Trey where it actually matters: in hearts and minds, one-on-one. We know that Trey can dig into his deep pockets and outspend everyone, but he will not meet people where they are and he will not outwork us. No one will outwork us. These numbers show that when we talk to voters they see what we know: that only Dan can beat Trey in the general election and only hard work and shoe leather will make it happen.”

The breakdown by county is as follows:

As part of our continued commitment to transparency, following are details to help provide context on these results:

• All contacts have been made since August of 2017.
• When voters were contacted multiple times their most recent response is recorded.
• Numbers include likely primary voters, young voters who are unlikely to have built a primary voting history, and all-new voters who have registered since November 2016.
• There has been no meaningful shift in responses over the last month.
• 5% of voters ended the call before responding, which would equate to approximately 11% of the responses above had they responded.
• “Other” includes those supporting a write-in candidate, Robert Chatlos, and Trey Hollingsworth III.
• Callers and canvassers identified themselves as volunteers with the Canon campaign.

All hail Pinocchio: The Liz Watson campaign says it has a huge lead, based on tiny polling numbers.

Ever since I saw the Liz Watson yard sign illegally placed right there in the verge by Pinocchio Rosenbarger's house, it has seemed likelier than ever that in the ongoing congressional case of Watson v. Canon, the Bloomingtonian is the preference of the local Democratic Party's tightly scripted establishment.

The parallels with goings-on in the national party are fairly obvious, and I needn't repeat the tired litany.

And, a poll of 400 voters, among them 33% undecided, isn't very much of a damning verdict apart from serving as campaign hype generator.

So it goes (insert yawn here).

Me?

I've no issues with Watson, but my preference remains elsewhere. Knowing that Pinocchio's nose knows Dickeyformity is a nudge, to be sure, but I have these other fish yet to fry.

Until they are, I remain a passive observer.

IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Liz Watson Has Double Digit Lead in Indiana 09 Democratic Primary

Bloomington, IN -- On Tuesday, the Liz for Indiana campaign released poll numbers that show Liz Watson with a 13-point lead over Dan Canon in the Democratic primary to replace Trey Hollingsworth in November.

“This poll proves what we already know. Democrats are ready to vote for Liz in May, and they see Liz as the best candidate to take on Trey Hollingsworth in November,” said Brian Peters, Campaign Manager for the Liz for Indiana campaign.

The poll, together with Liz’s support from 27 labor unions and a slew of progressive organizations, as well as the campaign’s $165K cash on hand lead over the rest of the field combined, shows a commanding advantage in the May 8 primary.

“Not only do the poll numbers show our campaign with a large lead, but we also have the resources to get Liz’s message out to every voter in this district. That is a good thing, because they like what they’re hearing.”

The poll was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in the field from March 3-5 and sampled over 400 Democratic primary voters.

9th District Congress tidbits: Medical marijuana, Canon vs. Watson finance comparison, plus Watson's new NA office opening.

When the Kentucky political blogger Jacob Payne tweeted about a Politico article pertaining to medical marijuana and "Red State Democrats," I wasn't expecting a thread about Dan Canon.

It happened, anyway. First, the marijuana post.

These Red-State Democrats Think Legal Marijuana Can Help Them Win, by James Higdon (Politico)

With sky-high approval rates, pot is an issue challengers say will cure the Democratic malaise in Trump country.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind.—“We don’t need to give him another ounce of our brain-space,” Dan Canon told the crowd of 40 people, hitting the TV mute as President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech began. “We don’t care what he says.” The speech had been the advertised reason for the gathering at the Crazy Horse bar in downtown Bloomington, but in truth the mix of college students and older locals couldn’t even be bothered to hate watch Trump. They had come to hear Canon, a civil rights attorney running for Congress in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District, talk about his campaign to unseat one-term incumbent Trey Hollingsworth.

Students seem drawn to Canon in part because he was one of the plaintiff attorneys in the lawsuit that became Obergefell v. Hodges, the Supreme Court case that legalized same-sex marriage. They like his stances on raising the federal minimum wage and providing Medicare for all. But it’s his full-throated support for legalizing medical marijuana at the federal level that has distinguished him in the eyes of many young voters, who consider it a threshold for taking any politician seriously.

“I think anytime you have an issue with such a high degree of bipartisan support in 2018, you have to pay attention to it,” Canon told POLITICO Magazine, regarding marijuana. “And it's appealing because it touches on so many other things: creates a new industry with jobs, good for agriculture, alleviates pressures placed on the criminal justice system, reduces overdose deaths, is a natural pain reliever, can raise massive tax revenue, et cetera.”

Payne's subsequent thread of tweets unspooled as follows.

In that same story, Dan Canon gets coverage. Along with his primary opponent - a woman many of his supporters (his non-voting Louisville twitter base) had no idea was in the race. I looked at their FEC reports a week or so ago and found a few interesting things.

Aside from Canon's report being sloppy & unprofessional (WHO DID THAT SHIT?!), he's getting more of his $ from OOS than his opponent (based on itemized contribs reported).

Canon pulled $81K in Indiana, $141K from OOS. That's $60K more OOS than in-state. Liz Watson pulled $120K in Indiana, $152K OOS. That's just $32K more OOS than in-state.

This tells me Watson's support base could potentially be stronger than Canon's in the 9th District. Her base and campaign team seem just as energized & active.

Since neither Canon nor Watson raised much $ and their burn rates are high, they'll have nothing in the general to compete with the carpetbagger on the Republican side.

Note: Tons of Canon's $ isn't even available to him in the primary. Wealthy friends maxed out for both the primary & general to pad his numbers. Which is... kind of not great.

Canon's path to victory in a primary doesn't seem quite as clear as it did in the beginning. His campaign (staff) is running scared of Watson. And Watson's campaign refers to him as "the male candidate" - so that's fun.

Just wanted to tweet some campaign finance tidbits out there since campaigns are intentionally misleading, pad numbers, aren't realistic about what's going on.

Earlier today I picked up a call from the 317 area code and found myself chatting with one of Watson's tele-campaigning volunteers, who reminded me that the candidate's New Albany office will be opening this Friday at 141 W. Main Street -- and would I attend the christening?

I'll certainly try. After all, I have a currently unanswered question.

Irrespective of what may or may not transpire, we have to give Team Watson credit for superlative HQ placement.

A 10-second walk for a craft beer might be a new record.

9th district primary opponents Dan Canon and Liz Watson raised lots of money in the 3rd quarter. We know Canon, so let's have a look at Watson.

According to Ballotpedia, five Democrats have declared for the primary in May, 2018. The winner will contest incumbent Trey Hollingsworth's 9th district congressional seat.

Dan Canon

Rob Chatlos

Jason Leineweber

Tom Pappas

Liz Watson

Note that Ballotpedia lists Chatlos twice, as a Democrat and as an Independent.

Yesterday Dan Canon's team took to social media to reveal his 3rd quarter fundraising proceeds.

Congressional Candidate Dan Canon has record-setting quarter

New Albany, Indiana— Dan Canon, Congressional candidate in Indiana’s 9th district, today reported raising over $208k, the most ever by a Democratic Challenger in the 9th District in the 3rd quarter of a non-election year.

Canon’s fundraising came overwhelmingly from small-dollar donors, with over 1600 individual donations including donations from all thirteen counties in the district. These amounted to a median donation of $27. 86% of donations were $100 or less. In addition, the campaign is building an unprecedented field operation to engage constituents across the district.

So did Watson, who barely trailed Canon on the tote board.

Liz Watson, Candidate in IN-09, Raises More Than $200,000 in Third Quarter

Watson out-raised Republican incumbent Trey Hollingsworth

Liz Watson, candidate for Congress in IN-09, raised more than $200,000 by the September 30th fundraising deadline. In doing so, Watson has out-raised Republican incumbent Trey Hollingsworth and nearly every candidate running for Congress in Indiana.

USA Today had a look at these early fundraising returns.

The most noteworthy numbers for third quarter fundraising were put up in southcentral Indiana where both New Albany attorney Dan Canon and Bloomington attorney Liz Watson each raised more than $200,000. That’s not only more than the $127,400 raised in the past three months by freshman Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, R-New Albany. But it’s also more than the recent amounts raised by any other House candidate in the state except Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Jimtown.

It occurs to me that while Canon is well known in New Albany and metro Louisville, readers might not be familiar with Watson, who rode the Democratic Party's Harvest Homecoming parade float with Canon.

I'm not sure if any of the other candidates did, although it's possible. Later Watson posted this at Fb:

I posted a comment asking the candidate about Tenille's housing status and costs, given the state of affordable housing in New Albany amid Jeff Gahan's putsch and subsequent hostile takeover of public housing. She replied via Messenger that she'd like to learn more about these topics.

Accordingly, I was happy to provide the candidate with a list of NA Confidential links on the putsch, and I hope to speak with her about it very soon.

In the meantime, via Watson's web site, here's her pitch.

Meet Liz Watson

Liz Watson is running for Congress because she wants to bring good jobs, affordable health care, and high-quality public education to Indiana’s working families. Liz has fought for Hoosiers in the nation’s capitol, and she has seen the dysfunction in Washington up close. Liz believes it’s unacceptable that working people are being left behind by politicians who would rather stand up for special interests than for Hoosiers.

Liz has led and won important fights throughout her legal career to help hardworking people get high-quality, good-paying jobs. As a working mom, Liz understands that today's families need affordable health care, high-quality child care, predictable schedules, paid sick days and family leave, and fair pay. She has written policies to raise the minimum wage, protect working people from being cheated out of their pay, and to create pathways to the middle class.

Liz learned the values of hard work and fair play the old-fashioned way. She worked the cash register at Fazoli’s, waitressed at Steak ‘n’ Shake, and sold clothing at L.S. Ayres. Through these experiences, she learned the value of a dollar while saving for college.

Liz’s roots in Indiana date back to the Civil War, when her great-great grandfather fought for the Union from Huntington, Indiana. She comes from generations of hardworking Hoosiers: a postal inspector, carpenter, refrigerator and electrical repairman, teachers, and the owner of the Feed and Grain Store in Shoals.

It’s wrong that today Indiana families who work hard and play by the rules struggle to keep their heads above water. Liz believes we should invest in workforce training and in the future of our young people, especially in proven models like apprenticeship, make community college and universities more affordable, and support our small business job-creators.

Liz gets results. When she learned that pregnant women working in retail jobs were being told they couldn’t make simple changes at work like carrying a water bottle or being able to sit down during a long shift, despite doctors’ orders, she filed a complaint and got the policy changed. Fighting for working people and the right to organize has been the hallmark of Liz’s career and continues to motivate her to serve her community.

For too long, Congress has done everything to help special interest billionaires and little to help Main Street. Liz will work to get hardworking Hoosiers a long overdue raise, fight against trade deals that threaten Hoosier manufacturing, support small businesses, help people juggle work and family life, and protect public education and affordable health insurance–including for those fighting the grips of opioid addiction.

Liz and her husband Craig are both teaching at Indiana University. Their two young children are attending the same elementary school that Liz attended as a child, and they love spending time with Liz’s parents who live a few miles away.

Liz brings the experience and drive that we need to win for Hoosiers in Congress, and she will never stop fighting for Indiana’s families.