Having served multiple terms both as city councilman and (incumbent) county commissioner, Seabrook simply is the most powerful Republican hereabouts apart from State Representative Ed Clere, and he was re-elected as commissioner in November, 2014 in a 61-39 landslide over Dan Coffey.
What would a Seabrook candidacy mean for the 2015 contest? Back in May, I glanced at the city numbers since 1971.
ON THE AVENUES: Three’s company, two. Or four? Maybe more.
In eleven mayoral races since 1971, three of which included independent and/or libertarian candidacies of more than 2% showing, the average Republican percentage has been 48%. It's been as high as 66% (Bob Real) and as low as 20% (Dale Bagshaw).
However, the two lowest Republican percentages during this period (Bagshaw in 2011 and Ken Keilman in 1991) both occurred when an independent candidacy split the GOP.
I'm no oddsmaker, but Seabrook's presumed presence on the ballot almost surely makes the 2015 election a toss-up, going into it. Seabrook might even be the favorite.
In 2011, Jeff Gahan took advantage of Jack Messer's quixotic independent run and a non-existent GOP presence to amass a 64% winning tally, but since 1971, including two occasions when the person seeking re-election actually did better his second time out (and acknowledging two other cases when an incumbent didn't escape the primary), a mayor running for re-election in New Albany has lost 9% of the vote. This takes Gahan down to 55% -- still powerful, but all things considered, and seasoning the broth with the historical precedent of percentages, it surely brings Seabrook and Gahan neck-and-neck. Charitably, it's 51-49 -- still Gahan, but in all respects a humdinger.
But what if it isn’t a two-party race?
What happens if there is an independent candidacy on the left flank of the hegemonic local Democrats, finally offering a positive, principled, grassroots alternative to their dull, insipid, steadfast march toward the Republicans on the right?
You know, a choice.
A genuine, unprecedented, serious choice for those of us sick to death of holding our noses, rushing to kick the DemoDixiecrats' football, and winding up on our backs in the slime, yet again.
Offhand, I'd say it would make things very, very interesting, but before making a formal declaration of this insurgent candidacy, which will come soon enough, my thought today is that the only prospect more entertaining than a Seabrook candidacy itself is watching as the Gahan/Dickey team assembles morosely at the Roadhouse, longnecks and abacuses in hand, determined at long last to do the math.
No comments:
Post a Comment